538.com: “Although Barack Obama remains a slight favorite in this election, his position is more vulnerable than at any point since the primaries concluded, and he no longer appears to have a built-in strength in the electoral college that we had attributed to him before.”

What tipped the scales for them was the Public Policy Polling results in Ohio, showing Obama dropping 8 percent from last month into a 45-45 tie.

They also note, “McCain now rates as slightly more likely to win the electoral college than the popular vote, a reversal of the trend apparent for most of the past couple of months.”

Having said all that, there’s still at least seven swerves left in this race. Two running mate announcements, two conventions, and three debates.