If the election had been held in early October, “independent” candidate Greg Orman might have won the Kansas Senate race. As October began, NBC News/Marist put Orman up by 10 and Survey USA put him up by 5.

But as Pat Roberts’ campaign shook off the complacency and lethargy, Republicans from Jeb Bush to Sarah Palin came to help out the incumbent, and Orman grew even more evasive about his political leanings, polls shifted. CNN put Roberts up by 1, and Fox News put Roberts up by 5. Tea-party groups are getting back on board with Roberts, and conservative groups are starting to fill the airwaves with anti-Orman ads. Roberts, hurt by a deeply divided GOP primary, a long, long period of service in Washington, and an iffy status of residency in the state, may turn out to be quite lucky that he had as much time as he has to right the ship.

Now even Public Policy Polling is throwing some cold water on Democrats’ hopes that Orman will derail Roberts’ bid for reelection:

In the Senate race Greg Orman leads Pat Roberts 44-41, with Libertarian Randall Batson at 5%. In a head to head match up without Batson, Orman has a 46/43 advantage. A month ago he led Roberts 46/36- Orman has held onto his support since then, but the incumbent is on the rise. Roberts’ gains have come pretty much exclusively with Republicans — he’s gone from leading by 26 points with them at 57/31 in September to now a 37 point advantage at 62/25. Roberts remains unpopular- only 37% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 47% who disapprove. But Orman’s negatives are rising as the campaign progresses too- his net favorability of +4 at 42/38 is down 16 points from last month when it was +20 at 39/19.
There’s still one big data point in Kansas pointing to the possibility of Roberts ultimately coming back to win this race. By a 52/35 margin, voters in the state would rather Republicans had control of the Senate than Democrats. And among those who are undecided there’s a 48/25 preference for a GOP controlled Senate. If voters make up their minds based on the national picture in the closing stretch it could mean voting for Roberts even if they don’t really care for him personally.

How long can an “independent” remain a blank slate in a Republican-leaning state? Roberts and Republicans have to hope, “not long enough to win.”