This comment over at Hot Air resonated with me:

It’s always fun to switch Democrats with Republicans in the same situation and imagine what the media would be saying, but with the Obama campaign, it’s become more head-popping than a Kafka play. Imagine John McCain was discovered to have been attending the Westboro Baptist Church for 20 years, and responded by giving a speech about how Fred Phelps is a part of the American experience, a man he could no more disown than he could disown the entire white community. Imagine the majority of white Americans sitting quietly by as Phelps is declared one of their most important voices, and rewarding McCain with only slightly diminished poll numbers. A few weeks later, Phelps gives an interview accusing McCain of being a disingenuous politician, which makes an angry McCain completely reverse his previous excuses and finally denounce his hateful pastor – to a thunderous round of media applause and loud calls to let the story die. Around the same time, we begin seeing pictures of McCain’s old friend, an abortion clinic bomber, tap-dancing on an American flag. The media responds by yawning and suggesting McCain’s primary opponent should drop out of the race so we can get back to “the issues…” You can’t do it. No matter how good your imagination is, your mind’s eye ends up bloodshot and blurry before you get halfway through the scenario. The Democrats are hungry for power and eager to forgive the Messiah, the media is eager to polish his shoes, and a portion of the hardcore left thinks Wright and Ayers are a feature, not a bug… but I have to think normal Americans are going to recoil from the Dem ticket in horror this year.

Last night, talking to one of the sharpest and most trusted political minds I know, I lamented that Obama’s “uniter, hope, change, post-partisan, transcending race, transcending-divisions, not-just-another-politician” image had been shattered by the law firm of Wright, Michelle, Ayers and Rezko, and yet Obama still matches up quite well in the head-to-head matchups with McCain.

This trusted mind reminded me that in his political consulting days, if his candidate lost six points in a tracking poll in three days, he began updating his resume as it meant his candidate was doomed or near-doomed. He notes that in just about any poll, Obama’s lost ground in recent weeks. In Ipsos’ head-to-head with Hillary, he’s lost 6 points. In USA Today/Gallup, he’s lost six points since the last poll. In Pew Research, his numbers remained the same while Hillary’s numbers went up six points.

This mind, usually something of a pessimist on Republican chances (he told me I was way too optimistic about the GOP’s hold on Congress throughout 2006, and he was right), told me he thought McCain had a 60 percent chance of winning this year.

I can’t say I agree with that assessment… but it’s now possible that this year is disastrous for the Democrats at the presidential level. At the beginning of the year, that looked like a most implausible scenario. Obama could very well come to be seen as an amalgamation of George McGovern, Michael Dukakis and John Kerry; Hillary could possibly swipe the nomination in a manner at enrages young people, African-Americans, and latte liberals. The “Recreate 68″ movement could very well cause violence and chaos in Denver at the Democratic convention. Michigan and Florida could go without representation in the Democrats’ primary process. The Reagan Democrats who aren’t sold on Obama in the primary – the elderly, the white working class, union members, Catholics and Jews could decide to go with the war hero with the inspiring life story.

A significant number of Obama voters could stay home if Hillary’s the nominee; a significant number of Hillary supporters may cross over if Obama’s the nominee. The Democratic nominee could lose the trifecta of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.