If you read between the lines of this New York Times article on redistricting in New York, you can see that if the process were guided by population shifts, it probably would eliminate two Democrat seats. But the partisan divide in the state legislature is more likely to eliminate one Republican seat and one Democrat seat:
Congressional districts are redrawn every 10 years to reflect the nation’s population shifts. Last week, state lawmakers learned that the New York delegation would shrink to 27 seats, from 29. Even though the state’s population grew 2.1 percent over the past decade, the country’s population as a whole continues to move south and west.
The task of recreating political boundaries, which will fall to the 211 lawmakers who make up the State Senate and Assembly in Albany, will be especially tense because of the need to eliminate two seats, costing incumbents their jobs.
Democratic House members are hoping a Democratic majority in the Assembly will defend their interests, while Republican House members are looking to a Republican majority in the State Senate for help.
In the end, leaders from the two parties will probably have to strike a deal requiring each party to give up a Congressional seat. If they cannot reach an agreement, the issue could end up in the courts.
A civic coalition led by former Mayor Edward I. Koch is pushing for the establishment of a nonpartisan commission to redraw the lines. But lawmakers have historically jealously guarded their power over the process.
Census data released this week showed that the state’s population growth was driven mainly by gains in New York City and several of its suburbs. The upstate region, including Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse, lost population, making it quite likely that House seats will be eliminated there.
The two upstate districts that lost the most people are in western New York: the 27th, which is held by Brian Higgins, a three-term Democrat, and the 28th, which is held by Louise M. Slaughter, a 12-term Democrat.
The new Republicans from the Empire State quoted in the article — Michael Grimm, Nan Hayworth, and Ann Marie Buerkle — all indicate that they’re not thinking about the redistricting process yet. Even if they did, as political newcomers, they don’t have any strong relationships with Albany Republicans. The same is not the case for New York’s House Democrats.
The newcomers may not want to spend time worrying about redistricting right now – but they may not be able to put off the concern for too long. To adapt further the (disputed) saying by Trotsky, you may not be interested in redistricting, but redistricting is interested in you.






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