The New Yorker does a feature story on the race in Virginia. Highlights:

  • “In May, Tim Kaine, Obama’s national co-chairman, wrote a memorandum to the candidate, urging him not to write off southwestern Virginia; if the region votes against Obama in the general election by the same margins it did in the Democratic primary, John McCain will almost certainly win the state.”
  • “Obama’s famous remark, made at a fund-raiser in San Francisco, that rural voters are bitter, which causes them to cling to religion and guns, lingers in the heartland. “I don’t pray because of resentment—I pray because it makes my life better,” [Democratic strategist Mudcat] Saunders says. “I don’t have a gun because of resentment—I’ve got a gun because I’ve always had one. I don’t ever remember not having a gun of some kind.””
  • “[Senator Jim] Webb advocates the exploitation of America’s vast coal fields, saying, “We’re sitting on the Saudi Arabia of coal.” Obama used that same term when he spoke in Lebanon, emphasizing the need to develop clean coal technology. But earlier this year he referred to coal as “dirty energy,” and his running mate, Joe Biden, said recently in Ohio, “No coal plants here in America. Build ’em, if they’re going to build ’em, over there”—in China.
  • The New Yorker correspondent was impressed by the turnout and energy at the McCain-Palin rally in Fairfax. As was I.

Right now, as a resident, I don’t know which way Virginia will go this year. Everything indicates that it is going to be very, very close.

You hear a lot of talk about the state (I know, I know, “commonwealth”) turning blue, with the 2006 Senate race cited as a key example. But I don’t know that the Webb-Allen matchup is a perfect comparison to Obama-McCain.

One, George Allen was uniquely mis-positioned for Virginia in 2006. His state, demographically, had changed a great deal from his last race in 2000, and post-9/11 expansion of government brought a lot of growth to northern Virginia. In the six year period, it became a more diverse state, making “Macaca” an unforgivable sin to a lot of voters who felt that an ethnic slur could be applied to them, as well.

Two, Jim Webb was uniquely well-positioned for Virginia in 2006 – former Reaganite, war hero background, son in Iraq, culturally conservative, etc.. He wasn’t Chuck Robb, Don Beyer, or Mary Sue Terry, previous Virginia Democrats who fell well short of being able to make a pitch to every Virginian.

And even with all of that, Webb won by a margin of 9,329 votes out of 2.37 million cast, 49.6 percent to Allen’s 49.2 percent. In other words, with near-ideal circumstances, in the best year for Democrats since 1974, the Democratic candidate won by less than one-half of one percent.

The idea that Mark Warner will help Obama because he’s going to win the Senate race in a landslide doesn’t make much sense. One, you would have to find a Virginian who wouldn’t ordinarily back Obama or even show up to vote for president, but will because Mark Warner is running for Senate. I think those voters are exceptionally few and far between. The second point is, the ballot will have the presidential race first, and the Senate race second. Even if people see Warner’s name and think, “I like Democrats,” they’ve already cast their decision in the presidential race (unless they go back and undo their previous vote). (Sabato agrees.)

I’d also note that Mark Warner’s advertising campaign here is striking for how nonpartisan it is, relentlessly touting his reaching across the aisle and getting things done. Warner’s “brand identity” is all about not getting into partisan fights. By comparison, on local television (the Washington, D.C. market) it is almost entirely Obama’s attack ads against McCain — he opposes alternative energy, etc. Clearly, a part of the Obama strategy is revving up the base, and ads attacking McCain will do that.

The McCain-Palin ticket is a much easier sell in suburbia than George Allen was (or, for that matter, Bush-Cheney in 2004, I would suggest). The Republican base should be much more motivated here than they were in 2006. Will the Democrats be fired up in this state? Sure. And African-American turnout will probably be at its absolute maximum. But it’s very, very tough to imagine Obama running as well as Webb and Mark Warner did in the south and west of the state.

It’s very easy to picture Obama underperforming Webb, and McCain overperforming Allen. That leaves Obama with a tiny, tiny margin of error.