We’ve reached the point where a poll with bad news for the Obama administration — like the NBC/Wall Street Journal one showing Obama’s approval at 47 percent and disapproval at 46 percent — isn’t all that surprising anymore. But what’s a bit surprising is that this is a poll of adults, which usually provides somewhat better numbers for Democrats; among registered voters or likely voters, Obama is probably underwater.

Having said that, two polls have come out lately that have some better numbers for Obama – Gallup has a 49/41 split and the AP poll puts it at a 56/42 split. I’d note that most of the polls have a fairly steady pattern of decline, but the AP one was at 50/49 in early September.

Statistical noise? Or has Obama done something recently that Americans like? The Nobel speech? Sending more troops to Afghanistan? Sitting down and chatting with Oprah?