A late update to this post — one more poll has come out, this time from Strategic Vision and again, Obama’s ceiling is in the low 40s. The lower end of the low 40s, in fact.

When Democrats were asked their choices for President in 2008, the results were New York Senator Hillary Clinton 48%; Illinois Senator Barack Obama 41%; and 11% undecided.
When Democratic voters asked what was most important to them, a candidate who represented change or one with experience, 43% said change; 41% said experience; and 16% were undecided.
In a head to head matchup between John McCain and Hillary Clinton, McCain leads Clinton 46% to 42% with 12% undecided. In a head to head matchup between John McCain and Barack Obama, McCain leads 48% to 40% with 12% undecided.

It’s a three-day poll, 1200 likely voters in Pennsylvania on various political issues conducted April 18 – 20. Margin of error of ±3 percentage points. For the poll, 576 (48%) identified themselves as Democrats; 504 (42%) identified themselves as Republicans; and 120 (10%) identified themselves as Independent or other party affiliation.