I donโt think either of the survey results cited in Mike Allenโs Politico newsletter are really that surprising, considering the state of the economy, etc., but he calls them โsoberingโ for Democrats:
THIS CYCLEโS BIGGEST SURVEY OF LATINO VOTERS: Campaigns and party committees are getting confidential briefings on the findings of a bipartisan poll for Univision of 1,500 likely Latino voters, conducted by Mark Mellman of The Mellman Group (a Democratic firm) and Dave Sackett of The Tarrance Group (Republican). About one-third of the interviews were conducted in Spanish, and the poll oversampled in CA, TX, FL, NV, NM and AZ. Playbook was provided an exclusive look at the findings:
โThe research finds A SUBSTANTIAL HISPANIC SWING VOTE. Dissatisfaction with the countryโs direction creates an opening for Republicans with Hispanics, and PERRYโS STANDING IN TEXAS REVEALS HOW WELL THE GOP CAN DO WITH LATINOS. 57% of those polled consider themselves Democrats, 19% Republican and 15% independent. But 43% call themselves conservative, 37% liberal and 20% moderate. Even 32% of Democrats call themselves conservatives!
โGet this: For SWING Latino voters, the top concern was โthe federal govโt in DC is wasting too much of our tax money,โ just ahead of education, Medicare, deficit, โfamily values are in declineโ and jobs. Their top issues mirror the top issues of other swing voters: โillegal immigration is out of controlโ was cited by 14%, compared with 17% for โpoliticians arenโt serious about real immigration reformโ (participants could give multiple answers).
โThe point to the campaigns is that Spanish-language ads can be run on the candidatesโ primary message โ it doesnโt have to be a separate Hispanic track. 30% of Latino swing voters watch mostly Spanish-language TV, and even English speakers consider candidatesโ Spanish ads as โa sign that they respect the community.โ
2) PURPLE POLL: Purple Strategies, the bipartisan public affairs and business advisory firm, is out today with a survey putting Obamaโs favorability rating at 41% in 12 swing states he carried in 2008 (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin . . . 1 in 4 (24%) have a favorable view of Texas Governor Rick Perry, and his numbers are worse (19 %) among independents. Mitt Romneyโs favorability was 32%. In a general election matchup, Obama is in a statistical dead heat with both (Romney 46%; Obama 43% . . . Obama 46%; Perry 44%). The survey shows Obama struggling in these crucial states, especially with independents and seniors.
โSobering?โ Well, letโs face it, perhaps the prospect of the president running for reelection after what feels like a four-year recession is driving them to drink . . .
And why the surprise that the top concerns of Hispanic swing voters mirror the top concerns of other swing voters?






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