I’ve had this feeling for much of the past year that, while Republicans would inevitably have some “how did we lose that one?” races on Election Night — Colorado’s governor’s race, for one — in this environment, we would probably see at least one Democrat who was never considered vulnerable defeated in a shocker.

For a while, Bobby Schilling beating Phil Hare in Illinois 17 seemed like that upset, but now it’s almost conventional wisdom; the polls show a dead heat. Ron Johnson beating Russ Feingold in Wisconsin’s Senate race would have been a great upset pick about two months ago; now Johnson leads considerably.

Ilario Pantano vs. Mike McIntyre in North Carolina 7? Nope, now everybody thinks that one will be close.

So how about . . . Bill Hudak vs. incumbent Democrat John Tierney in Massachusetts’s 6th district?

Bill Hudak, candidate for U.S. Congress in the Massachusetts 6th Congressional District, announced today that a new poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies showed the race tightening considerably, with Hudak leading among Independent voters by 41% to 40% and trailing Congressman John Tierney by only 7 points (39% Hudak vs. 46% Tierney) among high interest likely voters. Additionally, the poll finds John Tierney’s “re-elect” number at only 38 percent.
* Among the 66% of voters who have heard of both candidates, the race is tied at 43% to 43%.
* Responding to the question, “Do you think that John Tierney has performed his job as Congressman well enough to deserve re-election, or do you believe it is time for change and a new person to be elected?”, 38% said they would vote for a new person, 38% indicated they would probably re-elect Tierney (but only 32% were definite), and 23% were undecided.
* Responding to the question, “Would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?”, 59% answered that the country is on the wrong track, 30% said it is on the right track, and 11% had no opinion.
* Among these “wrong track” voters, Bill Hudak leads John Tierney by 51% to 29%.
The telephone survey conducted in Massachusetts’ Sixth Congressional District was completed on September 26-27, 2010 among 400 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/-4.9%.

Not a likely GOP win at this moment, but much closer than normal; since 2000, the least Tierney has won in a general election is 64.4 percent.