On the menu today: Did you know that since the beginning of the year, six polls have shown Donald Trump with a narrow lead of two to six percentage points over Joe Biden in hypothetical rematches in 2024? Another had a tie, one had Biden up one, and another had Biden up three. All in all, that suggests that if Republicans renominate Trump in 2024, he could well pull a Grover Cleveland and win the presidency again, even with all his baggage. Meanwhile, Netflix has a lot of problems, but there’s little evidence that Barack Obama and his schlocky documentaries are driving away the streaming service’s subscribers.
The Return of Donald Trump
Since the beginning of 2022, in hypothetical head-to-head matchups against President Biden, Donald Trump has enjoyed a narrow lead of two to six percentage points in the national public-opinion surveys of Insider Advantage, Harvard-Harris (three times), and Emerson (twice). Trump and Biden tied when the Wall Street Journal pollsters asked about the hypothetical matchup.
If you’re wondering whether these surveys reflect a particular public antipathy toward Joe Biden, the Harvard-Harris survey also asked about a hypothetical Trump-Kamala Harris matchup, and found Trump leading, 47 percent to 41 percent this month.
(One of the few polls to show a Biden lead in this matchup this year was one conducted by The Federalist and Susquehanna Polling and Research, and I think it’s just terrible how the gang over at The Federalist are always tearing the former president down and never giving him a fair shot.)
Yes, there is a lot of time between now and Election Day 2024, and even before any Republican casts a ballot in the 2024 nominating process. It is conceivable that this current moment is, if not a high-water mark for Trump, then a near-ideal set of circumstances for him. The flaws of Trump and troubles of his presidency are fading into memory, while the flaws of Biden and the troubles of the current presidency are vivid and fresh. The Covid-19 pandemic is now largely a memory, while Americans confront the problems of inflation, high gas prices, and high food prices every time they go shopping, fill up their tanks, or buy groceries.
Being banned from Twitter meant Trump’s metronomic nonsensical eruptions about the 2020 election being stolen are getting less attention than they otherwise would. For what it is worth, Trump recently said that even if Elon Musk invited him to return to Twitter, he will turn down the invitation and remain on “TRUTH Social,” telling Fox News he will “begin TRUTHing next week.” “TRUTH Social” launched February 21 but has been beset by all kinds of tech problems.
It is entirely possible, perhaps even likely, that when a pollster asks, “If the 2024 election for president were held today and it was between Donald Trump, the Republican, and Joe Biden, the Democrat, who would you vote for?” many respondents hear, “Are you happy with the way things are going, or would you like to see a change?” In most, but not all, of the polls I cited above, Trump’s personal approval rating is still low. But a slim majority of Americans may conclude that they prefer the problems of the last guy to the problems of the current guy.
This is also an indication that the January 6 Commission, the various potential criminal investigations into Trump, and the blisteringly critical post-Trump memoirs are proving largely irrelevant to people’s opinions about the former president. It feels like we’ve been seeing “Trump could face criminal indictment” and “the walls are closing in” headlines for years, but the cases never seem to pan out.
Michael Cohen recently told The Daily Beast:
The New York lawyer Trump used for years as his family company’s trusted consigliere, told The Daily Beast he’s already wasted too much of his time on a case that slowly and then suddenly doesn’t seem to be going anywhere. Prosecutors only have until the current grand jury’s term expires on April 30 to issue charges, at which point they must ask jurors who’ve already done this for six months to continue hearing evidence — or call the whole thing off and awkwardly make the entire presentation all over again in front of another 23 jurors.
If this grand jury is let go, Cohen won’t play ball. Asked if he’d be willing to sit down again with investigators or testify at a future trial against Trump, Cohen responded with utter exasperation.
“The fact that they have not done so despite all of this. . . . I’m not interested in any further investment of my time,” he said.
I’ll let you pause to compose yourself, to cope with the shock that Michael Cohen might suddenly turn his back on someone who trusted him and counted on him; it is indeed so out of character for the man.
Democrats are grumbling that Merrick Garland is fumbling the ball; law professor Kimberly Wehle warns that, “If Garland refuses to push back on the abuses of the Trump years by engaging in what would be an admittedly risky gamble to save democracy, all that stands in the way of a future presidential crime spree is, by process of elimination, a trust in future voters’ good and informed judgment —and a system of free and fair elections by which to effectuate it.” I guess the fear is that if Trump isn’t prosecuted, he could . . . steal the election.
But the numbers we’re seeing should be a giant flashing neon sign for Trump’s biggest fans and his biggest foes: The former president can win a general election in 2024, and he wouldn’t need any rigging to do it. (Yes, yes, the Electoral College determines the winner, not the national popular vote, but if Trump were to win the national popular vote by two to six percentage points, he would be extremely likely to reach at least 270 electoral votes.)
This isn’t a guarantee that Trump will win the 2024 election, just an observation that the public is forgetting why they didn’t vote to reelect Trump in 2020, and those memories are being replaced with outrage over runaway inflation, supply-chain problems, an insecure border, the debacle in Afghanistan, and so on.
A recent Washington Post article offered a brutal and arguably tasteless assessment from an unnamed “Democratic political adviser who remains close to the White House,” who said of Biden and his team, “There is as much a plan to win the midterms as there was to airlift Afghans out of Kabul.”
On the day of the next presidential election, Joe Biden will be almost 82 years old, and he’s likely to have presided over yet another brutal midterm-election cycle for his party. Biden looks tired, his mind wanders, and he tells farfetched and unverifiable stories that no one believes. He tells Americans that things like the border, inflation, and the Taliban won’t be a problem, and then the truth blows up in his face. Ordinarily, the right response would be to have the vice president take over, but even her closest allies are calling her time as vice president a “slow-rolling Greek tragedy.” Kamala Harris doesn’t bring any of the traditional strengths to the position of vice president. She doesn’t have many good or close relationships in the Senate, she’s a foreign-policy neophyte — credit her own staff for telling the press that — and her policy strengths as a prosecutor are duplicated by Garland’s experiences.
Democrats are in a lot more trouble than they’re willing to acknowledge.
Barack Obama and Netflix
Regarding yesterday’s Morning Jolt, a reader griped:
“The most telling executive decision Netflix made over the past five years was awarding Barack and Michelle $50 million (Martha’s Vineyard dough) “to produce television shows and films.” You recall the Obamas, don’t you — those executive producers of a melodramatic presidency?
Apparently you don’t, since NR’s article on the Netflix swoon failed even to mention its Obama-woken programming mistake.”
The Obamas signed their deal with Netflix in May 2018. It’s more than fair to ask if Netflix executives are getting their money’s worth from projects like American Factory (2019), Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution (2020), Becoming (2020), Worth (2021), and Our Great National Parks (2022). But because the drop-off in subscribers only started in the first three months of 2022, it is tough to plausibly argue that lack of renewals since January is a very, very delayed reaction to the Obama deal or lack of interest in the Obama projects. Much like the justified fury over Cuties, not every piece of bad news for a streaming service can be traced back to the programming you particularly dislike.
As for the notion that the $50 million deal with the Obamas is financially endangering Netflix, keep in mind that that sum equals roughly one and two-thirds Stranger Things episodes, if the Wall Street Journal’s recent reporting is accurate.
Yes, a lot of the Obama Netflix programming is syrupy, propagandistic pap, but that’s not really the source of Netflix’s headaches these days. I think we do ourselves a disservice if we instantly latch onto the belief that whatever we dislike most must be the preeminent problem.
Get woke, go broke? Eh, maybe. Some people are willing to take a financial loss to promote their worldview or values. But get woke and make bad financial decisions on top of that, and then you definitely go broke.
ADDENDUM: In case you missed it yesterday, after 460 days in office, Joe Biden nominated an ambassador to Ukraine; I’m pretty sure Elon Musk is good for the money; and when you see analysts arguing that House Republicans won’t enjoy a year like 1994 or 2010 this year, remember that they’re starting from the high bar of 209 seats, compared to 176 seats in 1994 and 179 seats in 2010. There are just fewer House Democrats around for Republicans to beat this cycle.