On the menu today: Joe Biden went out and gave the speech he needed to give — but you can already see signs that a Biden presidency would not live up to the happy, reassuring, calming vision that it promises; a huge issue that got zero attention from Biden; one of the most hated politicians in America seems to be getting something right, at considerable political risk; and asking whether famous faces from the entertainment world really help in politics anymore.
Joe Biden’s Happy and Unrealistic Vision
Joe Biden was fine last night. He wasn’t really bold or exciting or inspirational, but he didn’t need to be. He just needed to go out and sound like a man ready to handle the challenges of the job. Americans have heard Biden speak before, lots and lots of times. About 65 million Americans voted to make him vice president eight years ago. Americans aren’t expecting him to deliver the Gettysburg Address or to get them to leap off their couches at home and pump their fists in frenzied enthusiasm.
The audience watching at home — which may not be that big — just needed Biden to be reassuring — and to specifically reassure them that the reason they hadn’t seen as much of him lately is not because some health issue or ailment has made him mentally dysfunctional. The Trump campaign is currently running ads asking whether “something happened to Biden” and running footage of his confused, foggy, and forgetful moments on the trail. You might think the ad is unfair, but during the primary, Julian Castro made the same accusation during a debate. (Notice Castro did not appear in at this week’s convention in any way.) Biden turns 78 right after the election. Yesterday John Harris noted that Biden is older than 94 percent of all living Americans. The former vice president has indeed had unnervingly confused moments in interviews and public appearances. There’s no indication Biden’s campaign is willing to sit him down for a tough interview with a Chris Wallace or a Jonathan Swan. People have good reason to worry.
But last night, for about 15 minutes, Biden went out, looked into a camera, and gave the American people what they’re used to hearing from him. Democrats exhaled in relief.
You can paint a picture where Biden is inaugurated, and his fervent belief that he can work with Republicans pans out. The vaccine for the coronavirus should be arriving and distributed sometime in early 2021. With people no longer fearing catching the virus from routine interactions with others, the requirements of social distancing, and the various other restrictions hobbling the economy could be lifted. Tax revenue would surge, easing the squeeze on state and local governments and the off-the-charts deficit for this year.
After four years of a daily circus with President Trump, the American people could grow warmly appreciative of a quieter, softer, grandpa-telling-old-stories caretaker president — Lord knows the country could use some caretaking right now. Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez could be happy with their half a loaf. An atmosphere of perpetual crises, accusations, counteraccusations, scandals, hypocrisies, and overheated partisan rage could finally cool down and calm down. Washington could get boring — and the average American wouldn’t need to think about politics as much. Television news ratings and newspaper circulation would probably drop, but the country could also explore other interests besides a perpetual Manichean struggle for political power.
But that’s just about the ideal scenario for Biden. Life, and politics, involves things going unexpectedly wrong. And a Biden presidency is not likely to be shaped by amiable centrism and a second “Era of Good Feelings.”
As Politico suggests, Biden could nominate Elizabeth Warren to be Secretary of the Treasury and ensure that the markets tank and Wall Street sees him as a hostile enemy for the duration of his presidency. A scenario of a Biden victory almost certainly guarantees continued Democratic control of the House, and there is no indication that Nancy Pelosi wants to retire. Democrats could well win control of the Senate. Congressional Democrats will see their long-awaited opportunity for everything from the Green New Deal and tax hikes to a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants to a ban and confiscation of AR-15s. Senate Democrats are likely to nuke the filibuster; Harry Reid thinks it will be gone entirely by the summer of 2021. Biden himself is envisioning an “FDR-sized presidency.”
And while Biden might want to put the partisan fights of today behind him, a lot of Democrats see the Trump era as an unparalleled crime against the country and want vengeance. The New Republic wants a South Africa–style “Truth and Reconciliation Commission” to investigate every aspect of how Trump came to power and what he did as president. Even if Trump were to accept an electoral defeat graciously and quietly — I’ll give you a moment to stop laughing — the 40-some percent of Americans who voted for Trump will resent the new administration from using their preferred choice as a universal scapegoat.
Do you think Joe Biden wants to spend the first two years of his presidency vetoing legislation sent to him by a Democratic Congress? He might put his foot down here and there on a symbolic issue, or something his brain trust sees as genuinely dangerous for the midterm elections. But by and large, Joe Biden is going to approve what Congress sends him. Biden beat Bernie Sanders in the primary, but Sanders is going to get a lot of his agenda enacted under Biden presidency. And that’s with Biden around. Picture every day beginning with Vice President Kamala Harris asking Biden how he’s feeling, and suggesting that if he’s tired, he could lie down for a bit and she would take over for a few hours.
Even in foreign policy, we could move from Trump’s bad habits to Biden’s bad habits. This week’s convention barely mentioned China at all, which is an ominous sign for those who want a consistent hard line on the bad behavior of Beijing. A bizarre op-ed earlier this month from a lot of professional former diplomats and lawmakers in both parties argued for lightening the sanctions against Russia, deeming them counterproductive. (“The Blob” returns.) A Biden administration would undoubtedly attempt to resuscitate the Iran deal.
As laid out yesterday, the country would be better served by a president who started with the simpler, less ambitious, but arguably far more consequential goal: “I am going to get the executive branch of the U.S. government to run efficiently, effectively, and smoothly, making sure that every federal agency that I oversee is proficient at its stated mission, with particular emphasis in government roles that protect American lives, from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institutes of Health, to the Food and Drug Administration, to the Department of Justice and federal law enforcement, to our armed services and intelligence community.” Forget promising to cure cancer, a presidency that just got one branch of our government to do its job well would be remembered as a sterling success.
Instead, we get Biden promising a national mandate requiring all Americans to wear masks, including outdoors, a proposal that he would have no Constitutional authority to impose.
Speaking of Branches of Government . . .
Dan McLaughlin has an astute observation: “For a guy who has spent years in the trenches of the judicial-confirmation wars, [Biden] was strikingly quiet on the courts and the issues they control — he did not mention the courts once.”
Any chance that represents lingering fallout from the Brett Kavanaugh fight? When persuadable voters hear Democrats talking about “good judges,” do they think of a frenzied smear campaign?
If a Broken Clock Can Be Right Twice a Day . . .
You probably figured you would never hear “Bill de Blasio is right” in National Review in any context, but Kyle Smith — who generally can’t stand the man — observes that the New York City mayor “is taking action that is courageous, responsive to the citizens, and absolutely correct when he pushes the schools to reopen on September 10.” “‘It’s going to be tough. We have to recognize there will be a lot of imperfections,’ de Blasio said Thursday. ‘[But] we need to help our kids begin the pathway to life coming back to normal.’ Hear, hear.”
ADDENDUM: In case you missed it last night, I wonder if the country has celebrities-in-politics fatigue.