On the menu today: A long and detailed timeline about what the president, Secretary of Defense* Pete Hegseth, and other administration officials have said about our air-defense missiles and other critical munitions since the start of the war against Iran. They keep telling us everything is fine, while the available information paints a much more dire picture.
What the Administration Has Said vs. What the Information Tells Us
I regret to inform you that there is considerable evidence that the Pentagon, the White House, or both have not been forthright with the American people about our stockpiles of critical munitions that are important not just for the ongoing war against Iran but for deterring Russia and China.
December 5, 2025: The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) publishes a report studying what is known about U.S. missile stockpiles, procurement, and production rates and concludes:
As missiles have become weapons of choice, missile defenses have become the table stakes of modern conflict. The recent THAAD, MSE, and SM-3 employment in the Middle East shows that current inventories and production rates of missile defense interceptors are insufficient. Their employment in unexpected conflicts should be planned for, rather than come as a surprise that disrupts the inventory and prompts considerable course corrections.
February 23, 2026: The Washington Post reports:
As the Trump administration weighs an attack on Iran, the Pentagon’s top general has cautioned President Donald Trump and other officials that shortfalls in critical munitions and a lack of support from allies will add significant risk to the operation and to U.S. personnel. . . . Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, expressed his concerns at a White House meeting last week with Trump and his top aides, these people said, cautioning that any major operation against Iran will face challenges because the U.S. munitions stockpile has been significantly depleted by Washington’s ongoing defense of Israel and support for Ukraine.
February 28: The U.S. launches Operation Epic Fury against Iran.
March 1: In an interview with the New York Times, Trump says the U.S. military intends to sustain its assault on Iran for “four to five weeks” if necessary and declares that the Pentagon retained plenty of forces, missiles, and bombs to sustain the military assault “if we have to.”
March 2: President Trump posts on Truth Social:
The United States Munitions Stockpiles have, at the medium and upper medium grade, never been higher or better – As was stated to me today, we have a virtually unlimited supply of these weapons. Wars can be fought “forever,” and very successfully, using just these supplies (which are better than other countries finest arms!). At the highest end, we have a good supply, but are not where we want to be. . . . Fortunately, I rebuilt the military in my first term, and continue to do so. The United States is stocked, and ready to WIN, BIG!!!
March 4: At a Pentagon briefing, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine states:
I know there have been a lot of questions about munitions. We have sufficient precision munitions for the task at hand, both on the offense and defense. But I want to tell you, teammates, as a matter of practice, I don’t want to be talking about quantities. And I know there’s been a great debate about that, and I appreciate the interest, but just know that we consider that an operational security matter.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth adds:
We know their ability to shoot versus our ability to defend. That difference gets wider and wider every day. Our defense gets better. Their offense capabilities diminish as we are going into ammunitions that we, as we said, have tens of thousands of and can drop unlimited supplies on, with even more effects than the stand-off munitions we have now.
March 6: In a Truth Social post, Trump announces:
We just concluded a very good meeting with the largest U.S. Defense Manufacturing Companies where we discussed Production and Production Schedules. They have agreed to quadruple Production of the “Exquisite Class” Weaponry in that we want to reach, as rapidly as possible, the highest levels of quantity. Expansion began three months prior to the meeting, and Plants and Production of many of these Weapons are already under way. We have a virtually unlimited supply of Medium and Upper Medium Grade Munitions, which we are using, as an example, in Iran, and recently used in Venezuela. Regardless, however, we have also increased Orders at these levels.
Some may have wondered why, if every preceding administration statement was that the U.S. stockpiles had “never been higher” or were “virtually unlimited,” there was a need to “quadruple production” of certain weapons “as rapidly as possible.”
April 8: CSIS publishes an update estimating that the U.S. has 1,030 remaining Patriot missiles, down from a pre-war supply of 2,330, and between 232 and 262 THAAD missiles, down from a pre-war supply of 452.
April 23: On a Lockheed Martin earnings call, a company executive states, “The goal is to have an increase from our current levels of production which is, last year, 650 Patriot missiles per year, up to 2,000, and that’s going to take three to four years depending on supply chain and other considerations. But we really do think we can get it done in three to four years.”
May 1: Hegseth testifies before the Senate Armed Services Committee, where he is questioned by Democratic Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona:
Kelly: Okay, how many years to replenish? That’s the question.
Hegseth: I think that’s exactly the right question to ask, Senator, because the timeframe we were existing under was unacceptable. What this budget does, I mean, months and years.
Kelly: Years.
Hegseth: Fast. I mean, we’re building new plants in real time.
Kelly: So just to replace what we have expended?
Hegseth: I said months.
Kelly: And then you said years.
Hegseth: But it depends on the weapon system. But two to three, four times of what we have today. So yes, we’re dealing with the reality under the previous administration of what they sent to Ukraine and what they allocated elsewhere.
Note that at no point in previous comments did Hegseth, President Trump, or anyone else in the administration state that U.S. stockpiles were dangerously depleted because of the Biden administration’s decisions about military aid to Ukraine. All the previous comments were that U.S. stockpiles had “never been higher” or were “virtually unlimited.”
May 13: Hegseth, testifying before the House Appropriations committee, states, “First of all, the munitions issue has been foolishly and unhelpfully overstated. We know exactly what we have. We have plenty of what we need. . . . I take issue with the characterization that munitions are depleted in a public forum. That’s not true. And ultimately, we have all the munitions needed to execute what we need to execute.”
May 21: Acting Secretary of the Navy Hung Cao tells the Senate that the Pentagon is pausing a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan over concerns about the remaining stockpiles. “Right now, we’re doing a pause in order to make sure we have the munitions we need for Epic Fury, which we have plenty,” Cao said. “We’re just making sure we have everything, but then the foreign military sales will continue when the administration deems necessary.”
May 30: At a defense conference in Singapore, Hegseth says that Cao’s statement is not accurate: “Hung Cao is fantastic, but I would not couple the two in any way at all. And I feel good about not only where we are, but where we are in future production rates as well.”
As of this writing, that arms sale to Taiwan has not been completed. Earlier this week, House Republican Michael McCaul said during a visit to Taiwan that he expects the administration to complete its review of the sale “soon.”
June 14: Hegseth appears on CBS News’ Face the Nation and has a heated exchange with host Margaret Brennan:
Hegseth: So, our stockpiles are strong, and they will only get stronger in the future.
Brennan: There is a crisis with those stockpiles right now in private industry.
Hegseth: No, there’s not.
Brennan: You have testified to it in front of Congress.
Hegseth: No, that is a — that is a manufactured story that the media wants to peddle. And, ultimately, we are — our stockpiles are — are great. And they’ll only get stronger because of the way this president has —
Brennan: You testified under oath that it would take years to rebuild those stockpiles.
Hegseth: And, if anything, it was the Biden administration that gave away munitions to the — you don’t have to read back to me what I — what I testified.
Sometime in late June: In a meeting with more than a dozen of the nation’s top defense technology firms, Hegseth tells the companies that the Pentagon requires their help to rapidly replenish America’s weapons arsenal.
July 13: President Trump says about Iran, “We’re hitting them very heavy tonight, as you know. We’re hitting them. We have tremendous amounts of ammunition. We have numbers that we haven’t had in years, and we’re hitting them very hard and it’ll continue and we’ll see what happens.”
July 21: Hegseth appears before the Senate Appropriations Committee. Discussing the budget request for next year, he states, “Without these funds, we face critical shortfalls that threaten our ability to also simply pay our service members, rapidly replenish equipment and munitions, and sustain vital operation without disruption.”
Remember, about two months earlier, Hegseth had testified to Congress, “The munitions issue has been foolishly and unhelpfully overstated.”
July 24: NBC News reports, “American military commanders are choosing not to intercept some Iranian projectiles that are off course or not expected to hit U.S. forces amid a diminishing munition supply.”
July 26: U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz appears on NBC News’ Meet the Press, answering questions by host Kristen Welker:
Welker: NBC News is reporting the Pentagon is actually rationing some defense weaponry amid diminishing supplies. Is America backing away from a larger military attack because its military stockpile has been depleted?
Waltz: Well, look, we have to take a step back here in that a lot of stockpiles were depleted not only from what we gave Ukraine over the last however many years, four or five years. And the administration inherited — the secretary — Secretary Hegseth inherited a depleted situation from not only Ukraine but also the ongoing fight with the Houthis under the Biden administration and the depleted military under the Biden administration. So they have decided, one, they’re going to new types of munitions, cheaper munitions, new technologies, but also with these new defense budgets, rebuilding our great military.
Again, in the opening months of the war against Iran, no one in the Trump administration or Pentagon said anything about depleted stockpiles because of the Biden administration’s decisions regarding Ukraine or the Houthis. These explanations for the rapidly dwindling stockpiles appeared out of nowhere after several months of the conflict.
July 27: CSIS publishes an updated report, “Renewed Iran War Would Test Diminished Interceptor Inventories,” by Mark Cancian and Chris Park. The report updates its numbers and calculates that Patriot interceptor stocks, roughly 2,200–2,330 before the war, had fallen to between 759 and 827 — about 65 percent depleted — while THAAD interceptors had dropped from about 452 to between 234 and 278. The report states that “there are no good alternatives to Patriot and THAAD for ballistic missile defense” and warns that diminished stockpiles “may force the United States and its coalition partners to take more risks with interceptions.”
That same day, Jerry McGinn, a senior fellow at CSIS and a former official in the Pentagon’s Office of Manufacturing and Industrial Base Policy appears on PBS Newshour. He explains:
The Patriot and the munitions we use today were principally designed for performance, for having dramatic effects on the targets. And they are tremendous. They are exquisite weapons. However, they were not built and designed to be built like Ford trucks. They are essentially handmade in a lot of ways.
And it takes 24 months to create a — from contract award to delivery — to create a Patriot missile. Likewise, Tomahawks take about three years. So, you can’t stamp them — crank them out in a really quick manner.
July 28: The Defense Department announces new agreements with Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin intended to roughly triple and quadruple production of THAAD and Patriot interceptors, respectively.
July 29: CNN reports that “three sources familiar with the matter, who requested anonymity to discuss the U.S. stockpile, told CNN that the CSIS estimates were close to internal government figures.”
August 4: Reuters reports that the Army has expended “virtually all” of the Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM), two types of surface-to-surface munitions, citing two sources.
The administration denies the report and a similar report from CNN. “America’s military is the most powerful in the world and has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the president’s choosing,” Chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell tells CNN.
Hegseth posts on X, regarding a CNN report that stockpiles are dangerously low, “that banner is NOT TRUE, CNN. Shame on you. We don’t hate the Fake News media enough.”
August 5: The Washington Post reports:
President Donald Trump’s frustration over the Iran war boiled over at Camp David last week, where he demanded answers from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on why he had apparently been misled on extreme munitions shortages that now threaten to limit military options with Iran, two people familiar with the exchange told The Washington Post.
The encounter took place on the sidelines of his Cabinet meeting at Camp David on Friday where Trump vented at Hegseth that he thought the munitions issue “had been fixed,” according to both people familiar with the conversation, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity due to fear of retaliation. . . .
Back at Camp David, as he was confronted by Trump over the bare weapons stockpile, Hegseth defended himself and blamed his deputy, Stephen Feinberg, for the shortages and for not ensuring Trump was fully apprised of the issue, both people familiar said.
The administration denied the report.
August 6: President Trump posts on Truth Social:
The U.S. has massive amounts of “munitions,” especially of certain types. Additionally, large amounts are being manufactured and shipped to the U.S. as needed. Defense companies are building the largest number of plants and factories in our country’s history. The “leakers” of these treasonous statements are being hunted down. Long term jail sentences will be sought!
Now, if the report that munitions are dangerously low is false . . . that’s not really a leak of classified information, is it? It’s not leaking; it’s lying. And if leaking that information is treasonous, as the president contends, then the underlying facts about depleted stockpiles would have to be accurate, wouldn’t they?
Notice that almost everything above is administration quotes. Note that I provide links to transcripts and video of the administration statements that I cited. (How many other reporters do that? How many other influencers and talking heads just assert things, and expect you to just take it on faith that they’re characterizing the remarks accurately? Why would you trust those other schmoes over me, unless you prioritize news that makes you feel good over news that is accurate?)
We have an administration that lies. It lies habitually, and it lies reflexively. It refuses to level with the American people about the problems that it faces because it wants everyone to believe that everything is going fine and we’re in a “Golden Age.” Since the start of the war, the president, his cabinet, and other officials have insisted that the U.S. stockpiles of air-defense missiles and other critical munitions had never been higher or better and were virtually unlimited. Every time a report came out contending the opposite — often with fairly specific ranges of remaining munitions — the administration insisted it was a damnable lie.
We know the U.S. has been using these missiles and critical munitions in the war against Iran. We know we haven’t shipped any to Taiwan. We know Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine had received only a third as many air-defense interceptors from its allies this year as compared with the same period in 2025. (The U.S. no longer gives Patriots to Ukraine; we sell them to European allies, and those allies give them to Ukraine.) We know it takes two years to build a Patriot missile and three years to build a Tomahawk.
But the message from the administration is that everything is fine.
*The appropriations bills that pay for everything at the Pentagon still say “Department of Defense.” The administration can call the department whatever it wants, but when the paychecks say “Department of Defense,” Hegseth is still the secretary of defense.
ADDENDUM: In case you missed it yesterday, a discussion of food prices and whether people really are paying $20 for a burrito. John Puri argues I’m overcomplicating things, and that it all comes back to the monetary supply. Back in July, John argued:
Underlying inflation is still too high because too much money is being created. That is because credit creation (the source of new deposits) is too great, and credit is too plentiful because it is too cheap. The only way to rectify the situation is by making credit costlier, meaning higher interest rates.
The next Federal Reserve meeting that could raise interest rates is September 15–16.