On the menu today: The longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history appears to be coming to an end — and for once, it’s the Republicans who are feeling good and Democrats who feel like they just endured a fiasco, only to settle for the most meager of concessions. Read on.
Chuck Schumer, Master Strategist
(That headline is sarcasm.)
I hear that if you call Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s office, the hold music is Cheap Trick’s “Surrender.”
Last Tuesday night, Democrats were jubilant, convinced they had just inflicted the first of many consequential defeats upon their detested foes, President Trump and the Republican Party. And now here we are, six days later, and Democrats are once again disappointed, infuriated, and at each other’s throats.
For the past 41 days, Republicans have had 53 senators willing to reopen the government, joined by Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, and “independent” Angus King of Maine, who caucuses with the Democrats. But it requires 60 votes to cut off debate and bring the legislation to the floor for a vote, and thus to reopen the government, Republicans needed at least four more Democrats to change their mind.
Last night, five additional Democratic senators agreed to vote to reopen the government — and in the eyes of their fellow Democrats, effectively surrendered. Tim Kaine of Virginia, Dick Durbin of Illinois, Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, Jacky Rosen of Nevada, and Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire shifted their positions.
Those eight agreed to reopen the federal government at current funding levels through January 30, and in exchange, all they needed was a pledge from Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota to hold a vote on legislation to extend the Obamacare exchange premium subsidies by the second week of December.
There are one or two other deal-sweeteners in there for Kaine, notably an attempt to reverse more than 4,000 federal layoffs the Trump administration announced in the shutdown, and language to prevent future layoffs through January 30.
Oh, and keep in mind, House Speaker Mike Johnson has not committed to holding a vote on a bill to extend the subsidies. So, the odds of those subsidies getting reinstated are not particularly high.
That’s it. Those are the big concessions that these eight needed.
You guys couldn’t have worked that out . . . 40 days ago? A month ago? A week ago?
I am sure some Democrats, eager to put lipstick on a pig, will argue that the longest federal government shutdown in history added to the perception of disarray in Washington and made Americans more frustrated with Republicans, just in time for Election Day 2025. (Josh Barro had the sharp observation that when President Trump spends ten months acting like he has complete control of every little part of the federal government, a certain segment of the public won’t buy the idea that he can’t just reopen the government through sheer force of will.)
Sure, the federal government shutdown exacerbated the Republican problems on Election Day. But as noted last week, Winsome Earle-Sears was trailing Abigail Spanberger badly well before the shutdown started. Do you think all 13.6 percentage points of Mikie Sherrill’s margin over Jack Ciattarelli were because of the shutdown? Nah. Out in California, the “Gavinmander” passed nearly two to one, so its outcome was never really in doubt. And it’s very tough to believe that the federal government shutdown was a decisive factor in Zohran Mamdani’s win, when he has enjoyed a healthy lead since the Democratic primary.
Had the federal government shutdown never started, it’s likely the only thing that would have changed on Election Day 2025 was the margin of Democratic victory, not who won the races.
Republicans just got the government reopened in exchange for a promise of a vote — not even promise of passage! — and rehiring government workers who were on the job on September 30. That’s a very small price to pay, and Republicans didn’t have to get rid of the filibuster, the ultimate short-term gain, long-term loss for Republicans in the Senate.
Over in Politico’s Playbook newsletter:
The Democratic base is seething.
Liberal social media is on fire this morning, with activists, pressure groups and wannabe Democratic senators and presidents falling over one another to condemn the deal in ever-louder terms. Panelists on MSNBC were banging the drum against it last night, some calling for Schumer to face the heat. Instantly, it feels like a purity test — nobody hoping to get anywhere in Democratic circles right now is permitted to be anything other than outraged.
You guys go right ahead and seethe.
Hey, furious progressives. Right now, at least 670,000 federal employees are furloughed, while roughly 730,000 continue to work without pay. More than 13,000 air traffic controllers and 50,000 security screeners are currently working without pay. On Sunday, more than 7,200 flights were delayed and 2,200 canceled.
How many more pay periods were federal workers supposed to stay home, or work without pay, so that you could feel like you won? How many more air travelers were supposed to have their trips disrupted so that you would feel like Chuck Schumer was a tough gladiator?
We’ll probably never see a day when federal workers feel warm and fuzzy toward Republicans. But the largest federal workers union told Democrats enough was enough, and to pass a clean continuing resolution, two weeks ago. There might be some bad blood after this one, if the unions conclude that Senate Democrats saw the household finances of federal workers as an expendable pawn in a chess game.
I and other students of not-so-distant history keep pointing this out: No one ever wins a government shutdown fight. Whatever polling advantage a party gets in the “who do you blame more” question evaporates rapidly; the news cycle and the public’s attention move on to other issues. No legislator or president comes out of a shutdown fight looking stronger, smarter, or more reassuring. The whole thing is just a disruptive mess, and most Americans end up thinking more poorly of both parties. I suppose it’s possible that this one will be different. But I doubt it.
Now we just have the usual air traffic and other travel problems around Thanksgiving and Christmas.
ADDENDUM: Let the record show that the New York Jets have not lost a game in three weeks.
Okay, one of those weeks was a bye week with no game played, but that still counts as a non-loss.