On the menu today: Updated numbers reveal that when you add up all the military, humanitarian, and financial aid sent to Ukraine, Europe collectively is sending $2.22 for every dollar the United States has sent — dispelling the myth that America is getting stuck with the check for helping Ukraine. The estimated value of U.S. military aid remains significantly larger than that of European military aid, but European allies have compensated with more humanitarian and financial aid, as well as a willingness to house more refugees. Meanwhile, a dove on China policy contends that the U.S. has recklessly provoked Beijing by flooding “the Indo-Pacific region” with troops . . . a region that technically includes Alaska, Hawaii, Washington State, and California.
Europe Steps Up Its Efforts to Help Ukraine
One month ago, this newsletter took an in-depth look at which countries were doing the most to help Ukraine, using figures updated to May 31. The Kiel Institute for the World Economy’s database and analysis recently updated its figures to include aid provided and new commitments made through July 31, revealing that Europe’s share of the load has increased considerably over that two-month span.
The updated figures make the argument that the U.S. is somehow getting screwed, or that Europeans are shirking their commitments, even less accurate than it was before. We can argue about whether the U.S. should send more aid or not (spoiler alert: we should), but the argument that the Europeans are dodging their duties and letting Americans pick up the tab just doesn’t align with reality.
Total commitments from European Union member countries are now roughly double those of the United States; the updated report notes, “When adding other Western European countries that are not part of the E.U. (the United Kingdom, Norway, Switzerland), the gap widens further.” Specifically, the institute lists “a total of $166.92 billion in commitments by all main European donors (EU and non-EU), compared to less than $75 billion by the U.S.”
The United Kingdom has sent $6 billion dollars in military aid, $600 million in humanitarian aid, and $7.09 billion dollars in financial aid, adding up to $13.69 billion in total aid. Norway has provided $3.94 billion dollars in military aid, $210 million in humanitarian aid, and $3.8 billion in financial aid, and Switzerland has provided $2.14 billion in humanitarian aid.
All of that European aid adds up to 2.22 times the amount of total aid from the United States, or $2.22 for every dollar sent by the U.S. Two months ago, Europeans were kicking in about $1.14 for every dollar the United States sent in military, financial, and economic aid to Ukraine.
Over the summer, new aid packages and expansions of assistance programs were announced by the United Kingdom, the European Union, Germany, Denmark, Switzerland, Sweden, Portugal, and Lithuania.
Meanwhile, our Congress is still debating whether to send an additional $13 billion in military aid and $8 billion in humanitarian aid.
All the figures in today’s newsletter are converted from euros to dollars at this weekend’s exchange rate, one euro equaling $1.07. The Kiel Institute only measures government-to-government assistance, and does not count sums from private charities, churches, the Red Cross, or other international organizations.
We should note that the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker includes “pledges made in June and July, and therefore covers support announcements made between January 24, 2022, and July 31, 2023. It now also systematically collects and counts information on multi-year packages, spanning up to five budgetary years into the future.” In other words, the numbers include aid that is pledged but not yet delivered.
The update also cautions, “With regard to heavy weaponry, the data shows many more deliveries. The share of systems actually delivered in relation to those pledged increased by five percentage points to 69 percent on average in the latest update. However, the deliveries of tanks, artillery shells, and anti-air missile systems are still far below commitments.”
It’s reasonable to argue that European countries should be doing more, as the war is closer to their doorstep. And it is still the case that the value of what the U.S. is donating in military equipment — a list updated to September 8 can be found here — estimated to be worth $43.9 billion, still ranks first by a wide margin. Germany ranks second, having sent military equipment estimated to be worth $18.2 billion. It is reasonable that countries that have more military equipment to spare are donating more military equipment, and countries that have more financial or humanitarian resources are donating more of those. The Ukrainians appreciate whatever they can get.
Collectively, Europe is doing what it should be doing — although it’s worth noting that Europe is reaching that threshold in part because Poland, the Baltic countries, and the Nordic countries are giving a lot more than anyone could reasonably ask. Norway, Lithuania, Estonia, Denmark, and Latvia are all contributing amounts greater than 1 percent of their national gross domestic products (GDPs).
Those countries are balancing out a handful of wealthy European countries that are contributing a little less than some might expect. As a percentage of GDP, Spain is contributing .07 percent of its GDP in the form of bilateral aid, which ranks it 27th in the world by that measurement. Italy is contributing .068 percent of its GDP, which ranks it 28th in the world, and France is contributing .063 percent of its GDP, which ranks it 29th. These countries’ governments would likely argue they’ve given at the European Union office, so to speak, as they’ve contributed to the EU aid packages, which is counted separately from bilateral aid.
Also note that these figures don’t account for another form of assistance: housing and assisting Ukrainian refugees once they cross the border. As of the beginning of September, Germany had received 1,086,355 Ukrainian refugees; Poland had received 968,390; the Czech Republic had received 368,300; the United Kingdom had received 210,800; Spain had received 186,125; and Italy had received 167,525. The Kiel Institute attempted to separately calculate the cost of refugee-assistance programs where figures were publicly available — $16.4 billion for Poland, $14.8 billion for Germany, $4.1 billion for the Czech Republic, $3.24 billion for France, and $3.17 billion for Spain.
As for the argument that the U.S. isn’t carefully keeping track of what’s being sent to Ukraine and how it’s being used, the U.S. government established its Ukraine Oversight Interagency Working Group in June 2022, four months after the war started. As of the end of March 2023, the federal government has more than 160 personnel from 20 U.S. oversight organizations tracking and auditing the weapons, ammunition, equipment, and money sent to Ukraine, personnel who are primarily pulled from the Offices of Inspector General for the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. Department of State, and the U.S. Agency for International Development. As of March, investigations “have not yet substantiated significant waste, fraud, or abuse,” although it’s proven difficult to monitor weapons at the final stages, near the front lines. The Pentagon said last week, “A senior representative from the U.S. began work in Ukraine in late-August, and additional personnel are expected to arrive by the end of September. The positions are based at the U.S. embassy in Kyiv.”
The Pentagon Inspector General releases monthly updates on its reviews and audits of assistance to Ukraine — er, technically, the Pentagon IG publishes a brief update that summarizes the findings and announces completion of reports that include classified information and declares that we, the public, can file a Freedom of Information Act request for those reports.
Several lawmakers, including independent senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and GOP senators John Kennedy of Louisiana, Kevin Cramer of North Dakota, and Cindy Hyde-Smith of Mississippi have called for the establishment of a Special Inspector General for Ukraine, like the one established for Afghanistan. I see nothing wrong with establishing a special inspector general, but I’m not sure how dramatically it would change the current oversight efforts.
I find a lot of the arguments against U.S. assistance to Ukraine tired, unpersuasive, and disconnected from reality. “No blank checks!” Okay, agreed. No portion of the U.S. government has ever sent a blank check to anyone in the Ukrainian government, and no one ever will. Every check sent will have a specific, finite number in the amount box.
Meanwhile, President Biden is still taking his time, deciding whether to supply Ukraine with Army Tactical Missile Systems. Axios reported Biden won’t announce any decision on these systems during President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit this week.
Ukraine has been asking for these systems for more than a year.
Fun with Misleading Statistics
There are some Americans out there who genuinely believe that the biggest problem in Asia is that the U.S. and its allies are recklessly aggressive and provocative, and poor innocent Xi Jinping and the Chinese government are just sitting there, minding their own business, as those big mean American bullies try to pick a fight. (I guess all those Chinese military planes flying into Taiwan’s air-defense zone were just lost and wanted to ask for directions.)
A few days ago, Daniel Davis wrote in The Hill that the U.S. should not defend Taiwan, and argued that the U.S. was risking starting a war by building up its forces in the region so dramatically: “Few people are aware that there are already a shockingly high 375,000 U.S. service personnel stationed at 66 distinct defense sites in the Indo-Pacific region.”
Now, when you read those words, your Spider-Sense should be tingling. “Indo-Pacific region” should be your first clue; the U.S. military’s “Indo-Pacific region” covers roughly half the Earth’s surface, from Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, down south to Australia, up north to Alaska, and ultimately ending off the west coast of the United States. Those “66 distinct defense sites” do indeed include an enduring U.S. presence at bases in foreign countries relatively close to China, such as Japan and South Korea. Of course, a U.S. military presence in these countries isn’t exactly new. Crack a history book, fellas.
But those 66 sites also include plenty of bases in the Pacific that are geographically far from China’s borders, from Diego Garcia to Singapore, Wake Island to the Kwajalein Atoll, and rotational presences in places such as Australia and the Philippines.
Those “66 distinct defense sites” also include 26 sites east of the International Date Line, almost all on American soil. Apparently, we’re provoking China by having so many U.S. forces stationed on China’s doorstep in places like . . . er, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington State, and California. Bring those troops “home” now!
As for the claim that there are already a “shockingly high 375,000 U.S. service personnel” in these bases, roughly 157,000 are based in California, 61,000 are in Washington, 40,000 are in Hawaii, and about 19,000 are in Alaska. In other words, 277,000 of those 375,000 personnel — 73 percent! — are working in the United States. A bit fewer than 100,000 are spread out among those non-U.S. locations.
This world is full of people who will throw ominous-sounding statistics out there and just hope that you’ll never look at them too closely.
ADDENDUM: Thanks to Howard Kurtz for having me on his program on Fox News Channel yesterday morning.