On the menu today: This is why they hold the primaries; sometimes that double-digit polling lead proves to be illusory. Bad news for Francesca Hong, good news for Minnesota Republicans, and contemplating whether centrists and moderates can ever be fun. Read on.
Hong Gone
Back in 2017, before he became the kind of guy who checks under his bed every night for Israelis, soon-to-be-former Kentucky GOP Representative Thomas Massie observed about President Trump’s rise in the Republican Party:
I thought they were voting for libertarian Republicans. But after some soul-searching, I realized when they voted for Rand [Paul] and Ron [Paul] and me in these primaries, they weren’t voting for libertarian ideas — they were voting for the craziest son of a b**** in the race.
It’s an easily forgotten facet of American politics that parties aren’t required to nominate the craziest son-of-a-b**** in the race. You can nominate the second-craziest, or the third-craziest, or if you’re really willing to be daring, nominate a candidate who doesn’t seem crazy at all.
Yesterday, faced with a potential gubernatorial nominee who hates a bunch of American holidays, Wisconsin Democrats pulled it together and got just enough votes to nominate Milwaukee County executive David Crowley instead of the DSA candidate, Francesca Hong. As of this writing, Crowley has a bit more than 313,000 votes, and Hong has a bit more than 310,000. The Associated Press called Crowley the winner at 2:34 a.m. local time.
Keep in mind, recent polling had Hong with a lead of 18 to 29 percentage points.
In her teenage years, Hong had serious mental health issues, the details of which you can find in this 2023 interview. We can debate how relevant that is for a 37-year-old woman running for governor, but clearly enough Wisconsin Democrats looked at the prospect of a candidate with a tendency to either say or agree with crazy ideas — she concurred with Hasan Piker that she would erect “a Scott Walker statue that people can go to, that are made by local artisans and craftsmen that people can slap up if they want to” — and decided she was too much of a risk, for too little upside.
This morning, Hasan Piker’s uncle, Cenk Uygur, blamed the media:
“She got clobbered by the national media, didn’t respond as deftly as Abdul and didn’t have time to build a counter-narrative,” said Cenk Uygur, the Young Turks founder and Justice Democrats co-founder. “The negative publicity of the last two weeks seems to have taken its toll.”
That “clobbering” that he laments consisted of quoting her and showcasing her own social media posts. Also note that the heaviest hitters in the socialist movement, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, did not endorse her, and it was not because they just forgot about her.
Here’s Sanders, on Pod Save America, August 5:
Jon Favreau: I noticed um you haven’t yet endorsed in the Wisconsin governor’s race. Uh what’s your thinking there? And might you endorse or —
Sanders: I don’t think so. I met Francesca a couple of years ago. I was in Wisconsin, and she seems very, very nice. But again, this is a race I just am not that familiar with. We have not gotten involved in many governor’s races.
And here’s AOC not taking the bait on ABC News’ This Week a few days ago:
Jonathan Karl: So, you have Wisconsin coming up next. Francesca Hong, who is the Democratic Socialist of America supported candidate for governor. Are you — you haven’t endorsed her. Are you going to?
AOC: No, I haven’t endorsed in that race. My focus has been in winning back the Congress, winning back the House, and positioning ourselves to have the best chance possible to win the Senate. So, I’ve been focused on — on those legislative races.
Now, if Hong looked like a real asset to the socialist movement and a safe bet to win the general election, do you think Sanders and AOC would have declined to endorse her? Nah, me neither. On paper, Hong checked all the boxes on progressive policy, and, as mentioned above, enjoyed a huge lead in the polls. Clearly, Sanders and AOC saw something that convinced them that if they endorsed Hong, they would likely regret it at some point down the road.
By nominating Crowley instead of Hong, Wisconsin Democrats are this morning sighing with relief that they no longer must fear their nominee’s campaign getting derailed by a bunch of controversial social media posts.
Nah, I’m just kidding, Crowley has a different variety of the same problem:
Crowley, who is currently Milwaukee County’s executive and a Democrat candidate for governor, spent the weekend answering questions about some of the old posts on his old account.
“I created this Twitter account, but many individuals had access to this account,” Crowley explained during an appearance on UpFront on Sunday. “There are different posts on this account. And there are a lot of offensive and crude comments on these posts. And I want folks to understand that I don’t condone that type of language. And anyone who knows me, knows I wouldn’t use this kind of language.”
Crowley didn’t say which posts he considers offensive or what specific language he doesn’t “condone.”
But the “Dirt McGirk” account contains several posts that use the n-word, as well as one post about “gay thoughts,” and another about “kickin’ it with drunk chicks.”
“I did go back and look at those tweets, and again, they were offensive and [with] crude language, and I don’t condone that language,” Crowley added.
Awfully convenient how he didn’t write any of the offensive posts in that shared account, huh?
Good Job, Minnesota Republicans!
Another “craziest son of a b**** in the race” had a rough night in Minnesota last night, as Republicans in that state nominated state speaker of the house Lisa Demuth to be their gubernatorial nominee, over MyPillow conspiracy theorist Mike Lindell. Despite Trump’s endorsement of Lindell, it wasn’t even that close, with 43.4 percent going to Demuth to just 32.5 percent for Lindell. At least Lindell can rest easy on those comfortable pillows. Demuth will take on Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar.
In the U.S. Senate race, Republicans wisely nominated former sportscaster and exceptionally rare Three Martini Lunch podcast guest Michele Tafoya. Tafoya will take on Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan, who has been helping run the state’s executive branch during all of these massive-scale fraud scandals. (Forget the state government; not even Flanagan’s own office could pass a state audit.)
It’s Minnesota, where winning a statewide race is always tough for Republicans. But whether the political winds are at your back or in your face, you always want to have your best candidates on the field.
The Political Hot-Crazy Matrix
Why have so many primaries ended up nominating the “craziest son of a b**** in the race”? Well, crazy SOBs tend to be entertaining, and we are in a multi-decade worsening trend of American voters believing that government is there to entertain them. Government is not supposed to be entertaining. Government is there to protect the rights of the people and provide basic services. The fact that zoning laws, safety inspections, arms treaties, trade regulations, and federal contracting standards can be boring does not make them any less consequential.
But just because you don’t like a trend doesn’t mean you can’t learn from it, or can’t adapt to its existence. Look back to the most enthusiastic, widespread, and successful American political movements of the past few decades — the Obamamania of 2007 to 2008, the Tea Party of 2009 to 2010, the MAGA of 2016 (and arguably 2024), and arguably now the socialists and the DSA. They all made or make their movements look and feel fun. I used to joke that ill-informed young people reflexively felt positive about socialism because they thought it had to have something to do with social media. Then a DSA guy said that he was a socialist because it made him more social:
In a now-viral clip, content creator Nate Friedman asks a DSA leader to make an elevator pitch to his audience: Why is socialism better than capitalism? “Community. Are you tired of being alone, being by yourself with no one to talk to? [Become] a socialist.” The Knicks fever, the World Cup watch parties, the camaraderie he feels walking around Astoria — all are proof points that socialism works. The leader tells Friedman he’s hugged more strangers in the past summer than he ever has in his life, all thanks to Zohran Mamdani.
Phillip Magness observes at the link above, “Marxist policy outcomes become the socialist’s default answer not only to every economic grievance, but to the societal atomization that leaves young people feeling adrift.” It is probably not a coincidence that we’re seeing increased interest in socialism as a movement alongside a long-brewing but pandemic-accelerated loneliness epidemic. The DSA may not spend much time thinking about what policies to enact and how, but it is encouraging people to hug each other more. And there are a lot of Americans out there who could use a hug!
So, here’s the challenge for moderates, centrists, and everyone who’s unnerved by any fast-growing political movement that is uncomfortably close to mass hysteria, the sort of thing many will try to laugh off as “Woke One” in a couple years. Are moderates fun? Is centrism exciting? And if your political movement looks like uninspiring drudgery . . . how do you change that?
ADDENDUM: In case you missed it yesterday, President Trump assured Americans that our stockpile of critical munitions is simultaneously “fine” and “low,” and the Department of Justice might as well rename itself the Department of Time-Wasting Vendettas.