On the menu today: While some news organizations are describing the presidential race between President Biden and former president Donald Trump as “tight,” you have to go back to October to find a survey that shows Biden ahead. The most recent poll conducted by Bloomberg had Trump ahead of Biden by eleven percentage points when you include Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other independent candidates. Meanwhile, the Biden administration offers the Saudi Kingdom a super-sweet deal that includes security guarantees; and the good folks at the German Knauf Group, which manufactures plasterboard, write in to clarify about their operations in Russia, which they intend to transfer to local management.
As We Say on the Three Martini Lunch Podcast, ‘Way to Go, Nevada’
You can justify the headline, “Poll: Tight race between Donald Trump, President Biden in Nevada.” Emerson just came out with a new survey in the state that has Trump at 45 percent and Biden at 44 percent.
But if you throw in the third-party candidates — “Robert F. Kennedy Jr.” and “Other” — the numbers shift to Trump 42 percent, Biden 37 percent, RFK Jr. 8 percent, 3 percent other, and 11 percent undecided. That seems considerably less “tight.”
A bit like Schrodinger’s Cat, RFK Jr. is both on the ballot and not on the ballot; he’s submitted the required number of petition signatures, but the Nevada secretary of state’s office says he has to start over again:
On paper, Kennedy has qualified, as he has submitted the required 10,095 signatures. But those petitions only list Kennedy as the nominee, and the effort began before he chose his running mate.
The Nevada secretary of state’s office says that independent-candidate petitions must include both the presidential and vice-presidential candidates’ names to be valid. What has Kennedy campaign officials particularly irked is that they checked with the secretary of state’s office in November and were told, erroneously, that the running mate’s name wasn’t necessary.
To qualify as an independent presidential candidate, Kennedy needs 10,095 signatures and to pay a $250 filing fee by July 5. Even if his campaign has to start over again, that is not a particularly high bar to clear, and thus it seems safe to say Kennedy is likely to be on the ballot when Nevadans start their early voting on October 19.
Beyond Emerson, you can find a lot of polls in recent weeks that have Trump ahead of Biden, sometimes by a comfortable margin. This week’s Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll has Trump ahead, 51 percent to 43 percent, and when you throw in RFK Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West, Trump leads, 48 percent to 37 percent. The Wall Street Journal poll has Trump ahead of Biden by four percentage points, with or without the third-party candidates.
You have to go back to October to find a Nevada poll with Biden ahead in the surveys included in the RealClearPolitics writeup, and it’s the same story over at FiveThirtyEight.
I can understand Republicans being wary about their chances in Nevada; they’ve seen decent polling numbers prove illusory in the face of labor-union get-out-the-vote efforts in many past cycles.
But Biden won the state by just 33,596 votes in 2020, 50 percent to 47.6 percent.
In the Bloomberg poll, 74 percent of Nevada’s registered voters say the country is on the wrong track. Just 36 percent have a favorable impression of Biden, while 63 percent have an unfavorable impression; 46 percent of the same sample have a favorable impression of Trump, and 53 percent have an unfavorable impression of him. When asked, “What is the single most important issue to you when deciding how to vote in the November 2024 election for U.S. president?” 34 percent said the economy and 21 percent said immigration. The next most-frequently mentioned answer was abortion and “Social Security and Medicare,” with 7 percent each. Fifty-three percent of respondents said they trusted Trump more on the issue of the economy, while 33 percent said they trusted Biden. On the issue of immigration, 57 percent said they trusted Trump on the issue more, while just 28 percent said they trusted Biden.
There are still six months until Election Day, and a lot could happen between now and then. But this does not look like a state electorate that is in any mood to reelect Joe Biden.
Biden’s Super-Sweet Deal for the Saudis
Joe Biden, during a Democratic presidential-primary debate, November 20, 2019:
I said it at the time. [Jamal] Khashoggi was, in fact, murdered and dismembered, and I believe on the order of the crown prince [Muhammad bin Salman]. And I would make it very clear we were not going to, in fact, sell more weapons to them, we were going to, in fact, make them pay the price and make them, in fact, the pariah that they are. There’s very little social redeeming value of the — in the present government in Saudi Arabia.
And I would also, as pointed out, I would end — end subsidies that we have, end the sale of material to the Saudis where they’re going in and murdering children, and they’re murdering innocent people. And so they have to be held accountable.
That “sale of material” was U.S. military aid to fight the Houthis, the very same Houthis who are shooting rockets and drones at international shipping vessels and U.S. Navy ships, and have destroyed undersea cables this year.
The US and Saudi Arabia are nearing a historic pact that would offer the kingdom security guarantees and lay out a possible pathway to diplomatic ties with Israel, if its government brings the war in Gaza to an end, people familiar with the matter said. . . .
The pact may offer Saudi Arabia an arrangement strong enough to need US Senate approval and even give the world’s biggest oil exporter access to advanced US weapons that were previously off-limits. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would agree to limit Chinese technology from his nation’s most sensitive networks in exchange for major US investments in artificial intelligence and quantum-computing, and get American help to build out its civilian nuclear program.
From “a pariah” to gaining U.S. security guarantees. The Biden presidency has been great for Saudi Arabia.
Knauf: We Don’t Want to Work in Russia Anymore
The Tuesday edition of the Morning Jolt included the sentence, “It turns out that a big German company was contracting with the Russians to rebuild buildings in Russian-occupied Ukraine.”
Sandra Kuehberger, senior manager for corporate communications at Knauf, writes in:
Knauf produces building materials and is not involved in construction projects as owner, investor or as contractor. Knauf has no direct supply contracts with consumers or those who process Knauf products in Russia. Our products reach end users in Russia via many different dealers who operate independently from Knauf. We have no influence on how and where end users utilize our products.
The TV report of Monitor suggests that building materials are being imported from the EU to Russia. This is definitely not the case. Knauf does not supply from the EU to Russia or Mariupol. Since February 2022, Knauf has no longer imported goods to Russia.
Agence France-Presse offers more detail; apparently, the company’s building materials are produced in Russia and are then moved into the Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine:
Knauf, in a statement sent to AFP, insisted it “respects all the EU, UK and American sanctions against Russia”.
The Bavarian group runs 14 production sites in Russia where it employs 4,000 people.
It said its decision not to pull out of Russia — as many major German groups did following the invasion — was out of “responsibility” to its employees.
Since conquering Mariupol, Russia has published a reconstruction plan for the city, which was home to more than 400,000 Ukrainians before the invasion.
“Any enterprise participating should ask itself at whose service it is putting itself,” Germany’s foreign ministry told AFP, describing Russia’s reconstruction claim as “propaganda”.
Germany’s economy ministry told AFP that authorities needed to determine whether or not the participation of German companies represented “a violation of sanctions”.
When I asked Kuehberger about foreign-media reports that Knauf was ceasing operations in Russia, she offered this statement:
In light of current developments, the Knauf Group has decided after having had operations in Russia for over 30 years, to withdraw from its local business. It is the company’s wish to transfer the entire business in Russia, including raw material extraction, manufacturing, and sales to local management to preserve the jobs of more than 4,000 employees in the future. The planned transaction is subject to approval by the relevant authorities in Russia.
ADDENDUM: In case you missed it yesterday, “If you take over a building, bring heavy chains to lock up the doors so that the authorities cannot enter, take a facilities worker hostage, and refuse to leave until your demands are met, you are not just a criminal; you are only a bit behind Hans Gruber.”