CNN, back in April: “President Barack Obama might give Hillary Clinton the best gift any sitting president can offer their potential successor: a strong economy.”
As of March 31, households and nonprofits held $24.1 trillion in stocks. That’s both directly, and through mutual funds, pension funds and the like. That also includes the holdings of U.S.-based hedge funds, though you’d have to think that most hedge funds are held by households.
Using the Dow Jones Total Stock Market index, through midmorning trade, that number had dropped to $22.32 trillion.
In other words, a cool $1.8 trillion has been lost between now and the first quarter — and overwhelmingly, those losses occurred in the last few days. This will probably be the worst quarter for stock-market destruction since the third quarter of 2011, when $2.8 trillion was wiped away.
Again, the stock market is not the same as the economy, but everybody who looks at their 401(k) or other financial statements is probably feeling some grim tension this morning.
The Homicide Rate Is Skyrocketing in America’s Big Cities
Over on the home page, an examination of whether the conservative push for criminal-justice reform can survive when America’s cities are enduring a sudden spike in homicides and shootings:
This year’s urban murder statistics range from unnerving to jaw-dropping. In Milwaukee, 86 people were killed in 2014; 101 have been killed so far in 2015. In St. Louis, the number of homicides has increased from 120 in 2013 to 157 in 2014 to 127 so far this year. In New York City, the murder rate is up about 11 percent from last year’s pace, and shootings increased 2.8 percent. (Overall, crime in the city is down 5.6 percent.)
Baltimore, torn apart by riots in late April, is experiencing one of the worst crime surges. New York City has 13 times the population of Baltimore, but the smaller city actually has more homicides this year: 213 to New York’s 208. Baltimore’s murder rate through August 19 is an astounding 34 per 100,000 people. Chicago is on a quicker pace, too, with more than 299 homicides so far this year, after witnessing 426 last year. Washington, D.C., homicides are up 41 percent from last year.
Even in cities where the homicide rate isn’t up, crime is increasing. Take, for example, Los Angeles, which had 135 homicides in the first six months of 2014, compared with 126 in the same period this year: overall crime in the city is up 12 percent and violent crime is up 20.6 percent.
Every Day Is Old-Timers’ Day in the Democratic Party
From our perspective, this is delicious . . .
Biden has another card to play in soliciting Warren’s support. He would be 74 years old if he were elected president in 2016, an issue he may have a way of addressing. “One thing that I keep hearing about Biden is that if he were to declare and say, because age is such a problem for him if he does, ‘I want to be a one-term president. I want to serve for four years, unite Washington. I’ve dealt with the Republicans in Congress all my public life,’” liberal journalist Carl Bernstein told CNN this month.
A one-term pledge by Biden would also interest Elizabeth Warren. She is 66 years old, and if a Democrat wins in 2016, she will be 74 herself by the time someone else has served two terms in office — and facing her own age issues. But if Biden won, after pledging to serve only one term, Warren would be the front-runner for the Democratic nomination in 2020. If Biden made her his vice-presidential choice, as Yale’s Professor Kahn and others have suggested, she might be a virtual lock for the Democratic nomination.
By the way, how do Democrats feel that the party allegedly in touch with young people is selecting among a menu of 73-year-old Bernie Sanders, 67-year-old Hillary, 72-year-old Biden, and 66-year-old Warren? Sure, the party has other leaders, like 75-year-old Nancy Pelosi, 64-year-old Chuck Schumer, and 77-year-old Jerry Brown . . .
Has any party ever had a top tier so aged?
Anyway, this morning, there are signs the Obama team is lining up behind Biden: “Sources tell CBS News that President Obama has given Vice President Joe Biden the green light to mull a White House run.”
The AP:
Some White House officials were irked by revelations that Clinton sidestepped administration guidelines by using a private email account on her own computer server to do State Department business. Privately, some Obama allies also say they’re miffed at Clinton’s handling of the email controversy, which continues to dog her campaign.
“Biden, as the president’s partner, would be closely identified with the Obama legacy,” said David Axelrod, a longtime Obama political adviser. However, he added that “any Democrat will carry the benefits and burdens of Obama into this election.”
Three weeks ago, Axelrod was saying he would urge Biden not to run in 2016.
Is Schumer Trying to Save the Democrats from the Iran Deal?
I knew the Iran deal was unpopular, but wasn’t sure it was unpopular enough to be consequential. Pollster (and NR cruiser!) Pat Caddell and Douglas Schoen, a former pollster for President Bill Clinton, contend the Iran deal could end up haunting the Democratic party for a long time to come:
For all the abuse he’s taking, Schumer may actually be protecting the Democratic Party from the real political danger inherent in Obama’s actions. The contempt that the president and John Kerry showed by taking this agreement to the UN before submitting it to Congress and the American people was reckless.
They are not only thumbing their noses at the American people and Congress, but they are showing contempt for the primacy of our system of checks and balances and they could be setting up the Democratic party for years of attacks of “you caused this!” every time Iran behaves in a threatening manner.
Should Obama veto a bill blocking the Iran deal and defy the will of Congress, he would once again find himself on the wrong side of public opinion: 61 percent of voters would want a veto overridden. If a veto is sustained solely by Democrats two-thirds of respondents, including a plurality of Democrats say they would blame the Democratic party if Iran got a nuclear weapon or used the money from sanction relief to support terrorist attacks on Israel.
The Iranian mullahs are probably smart enough to keep their nuclear program very, very secret and quiet for the next ten years. If you’ve just gotten a sweet deal from an administration eager to avoid confrontation, and a giant infusion of cash, and relief from sanctions, why do something as overtly game-changing as testing a nuclear weapon? Why not do everything you can (enrichment, etc.) short of overt testing, and then, after fifteen years, when the agreement puts no real limits on Iran, go to “breakout mode” and hit everybody with everything you’ve got? (Then again, the Iranians appear to be the masters of the needless provocation.)
But as for financing terror . . . heck, even the administration is admitting that Iran is going to use the money from this deal to finance more terrorism. Noah Rothman noticed Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz blurted out the obvious earlier this month:
“We are concerned about some possible escalation in their support for terrorism, meddling in the region in terms of stability,” Moniz said Thursday in a webcast organized by the Jewish Federations of North America and the Jewish Council for Public Affairs. “Obviously Hezbollah terrorism is an example.”
Obama administration officials have acknowledged under congressional questioning that part of the at least $56 billion that will be freed up in the sanctions relief for nuclear restrictions deal reached last month between Iran and six major powers could be directed toward Iranian disruptive activity.
But the concern expressed by Moniz, a top negotiator at the talks, was unusual in that, unprompted, he said directly that the administration anticipates an increase in terrorist activity. He also said the regime’s rhetoric on Jews and Israel was a concern.
“We find extremely bothersome to put it mildly the strong anti-Israel, anti-Semitic rhetoric coming out of Iran,” he said.
Moniz also cited the prospect of increased Iranian disruption in Syria and Yemen.
So every time Iranian-backed terrorists and militants strike, somebody’s going to point at the Obama administration and say, “Your fault!”
ADDENDA: Crazy but strangely compelling pop-culture theory du jour: The story in the original Karate Kid is morally inverted; the villain, Johnny, is always attempting to de-escalate the fight with the protagonist Daniel, and the alleged hero keeps provoking fights and lashing out.
The previous, better Karate Kid theory: It loused up the outlooks of young people for a generation by subconsciously creating the expectation that difficult tasks could be mastered in the amount of time it takes for one montage.