On the menu today: After more than a month of relative quiet, the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire on Sunday, shortly after U.S. Central Command announced that the Strait of Hormuz was now cleared of any Iranian mines. The Iranians dispute that, but what isn’t disputable is that the number of ships passing through the strait is increasing steadily, although still well below pre-war traffic levels. Read on.
Mine-Sweeping Success
Admiral Brad Cooper, U.S. Central Command, in a video statement, Friday:
We have successfully cleared sea mines in the strait’s international shipping lanes that were laid months ago by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Internationally recognized transit routes in the strait are free of Iranian sea mines thanks to the incredible work of the U.S. military.
Over the past few months, our forces meticulously and quietly cleared them of sea mine threats using a combination of Navy divers, Navy Seals, and U.S. air power from the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps. The circumstances were challenging and dangerous to say the least, but we got the job done. Bottom line, today international shipping lanes are open and momentum is building. Over the past several months, U.S. forces have assisted nearly 1,500 commercial vessels in transiting the strait by providing coordinated protection.
Those ships were carrying nearly 750 million barrels of crude oil destined for global energy markets, which is a massive volume. And while American forces have supported 750 million barrels of crude oil leaving the Gulf, Iran has exported zero oil from its shores since we resumed the naval blockade in mid-July. We have been highly effective. No ships have entered or left an Iranian port without our permission, and we have only allowed ships to pass through on humanitarian grounds, which is a credit to the dedication and professionalism of our sailors, marines, and airmen in particular executing this complex mission.
The mine-clearing operation began April 11.
Barak Ravid, global affairs correspondent for Axios, reported Friday, “More than 200 mine-like objects have been swept from the main lane of the strait. U.S. officials say only 11 of them were actual mines and just a few were properly deployed.” (Back in March, CBS News reported, “U.S. officials have told CBS News that there are at least a dozen underwater mines through the vital passageway, according to current American intelligence assessments.”)
Of course, an oil or liquid natural gas shipping company doesn’t always have access to equipment that can tell the difference between a real mine or a decoy “mine-like object.”
Since the start of the conflict, 65 vessels have been attacked by Iran, mostly by drones or other projectiles. The ships were oil tankers, container ships, and bulk carriers. Fourteen ships were abandoned, two sank, eight escaped any harm, and the rest reported varying degrees of damage.
It will probably not surprise you to learn that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy contends that the U.S. did not find all of the mines they deployed, and disputed that the Strait of Hormuz is open, contending, “Islamic fighters’ control over this strategic waterway is completely decisive.”
This morning, Iranian state TV claimed an Iranian mine damaged a supertanker:
A supertanker caught fire and was brought to a complete halt after being struck by two naval mines in the southern Strait of Hormuz, Iran state TV reports, citing a statement by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The IRGC claims the tanker had been attempting to pass through the waterway illegally. It does not identify the vessel or provide information about its crew.
As of this writing, nothing resembling that claim has been reported to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations office, which does a thorough job of tracking reports of attacks on ships. The most recent incident was Saturday, when “a tanker [was] struck by an unknown projectile whilst transiting inbound in the Strait of Hormuz. No casualties or environmental impact are reported at this time.”
Last night, shortly before 9 p.m. Eastern, U.S. Central Command stated, “U.S. forces took limited, precise action against IRGC minelaying forces posing an imminent threat in the Strait of Hormuz.” Capt. Tim Hawkins, the U.S. Central Command spokesperson, told CNN, “The US strike on Sunday targeted two Iranian rocket launchers on Iran’s Larak Island, where it observed Iranian forces preparing to launch rockets with mines into the strait.”
(At 10:18 p.m. Eastern, President Trump posted to Truth Social a video with the caption, “Kharg Island being blown to smithereens!!!” The video is AI-generated. As of this writing, there is no sign that Kharg Island, about 400 miles from Larak Island, was hit.)
The Iranian attempt to deploy more mines into the Strait of Hormuz indicates that the remaining regime needs the world to believe that the strait is too dangerous to transit. It is hard to characterize the U.S. effort as a victory if Iran has a de facto veto over which ships can leave or enter the Persian Gulf. But if the Iranian threat to the world’s energy market dissipates . . . well then, what’s keeping that regime in power?
Last night Iran fired missiles at U.S. military targets in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates:
Jordan’s armed forces said their air defense systems intercepted and destroyed eight missiles that entered the country’s airspace. The military said the projectiles were neutralized before they could pose any threat to civilians or property.
The UAE’s detection of a drone over its territorial waters followed earlier claims in Iranian state media that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards had targeted a base hosting US personnel there.
The UAE denied that the base had been targeted, and condemned the attack as a “dangerous escalation,” adding that it “reserves the full right to respond,” according to a Foreign Ministry statement.
We’ve heard earlier this year that Iran was rebuilding its drone arsenal much faster than expected during the cease-fire periods. But . . . last night’s Iranian strikes were limited and ineffective.
What is clear is that the number of ships passing through the strait continues to climb. From the U.S. Naval Institute, Friday:
Transits through the Strait of Hormuz rose more than 30 percent last week, with the increase mostly led by tankers and gas carriers.
There were 114 transits between Aug. 17 and Sunday compared to Aug. 10-16, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Those numbers are likely to fluctuate as more dark transits are confirmed.
There were at least 42 westbound transits into the strait from Aug. 17 to Sunday, with 29 the week prior, according to Lloyd’s data.
The London-based maritime insurance agency tracked crude tankers from Sinokor, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. and Adnoc, as well as ships owned by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
Despite the increase in transits, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains a shadow of what it was prior to the U.S.-Iran war, Lloyd’s List Editor-in-Chief Richard Meade said during a Thursday webinar.
“The industry is still operating under crisis conditions rather than anything approaching a return to normality,” Meade said.
Goldman Sachs estimates that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels, limiting the Iran war’s impact on global crude oil prices.
Total exports of crude and oil products passing through the waterway have risen to 15 million to 16 million barrels a day, Goldman analysts including Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby said in a note. That’s still 7 to 8 million barrels below pre-conflict levels, but well above a trough of 5 million to 6 million barrels a day in March, they said.
“The rise in dark crossings by specialized shippers, and in ship-to-ship transfers shows that producers and shippers are adapting to the Mideast conflict,” Goldman said. Higher dark flows could “moderate the upside to crude oil prices even if Mideast disruptions last longer,” it said.
How much oil is passing through Hormuz can be difficult to gauge as tankers often turn off their satellite transponders, a practice known as going dark, to avoid detection. About 6 million to 8 million barrels a day of crude is transiting the strait, traders told Bloomberg this week. The exports are helping keep global oil prices — which have dropped to around $89 a barrel from more than $120 in April — in check.
Oil at $89 a barrel is better than oil at $120 a barrel, but that isn’t adding up to that much relief at the gas pumps for American drivers. The U.S. Energy Information Administration put the national average price for a gallon of gasoline at $4.08 on August 24. That’s better than the $4.60 national average in May, but still significantly higher than the $3.25 national average one year ago.
Oh, and if you’re wondering how the Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian is starting his week:
The presidents of Russia and Iran, facing increased domestic pressure from drawn-out wars, were set to rally with the leaders of China and India at a summit on Monday in Central Asia.
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran headed to Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, for a two-day meeting of the 10-nation political and security grouping known as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The forum will allow Russia and Iran to demonstrate alternative sources of support as they work to defy Western efforts to isolate them.
At the center of the proceedings is the most powerful leader in attendance, President Xi Jinping of China. No nation has been more critical to Russia and Iran in sustaining their economies and war efforts than China. Mr. Xi has undermined efforts by the United States and its allies to pressure Russia and Iran economically, employing Beijing’s vast geopolitical and economic clout as the world’s largest importer of crude oil and exporter of consumer goods.
Whether the president wants to acknowledge this or not, Iran, Russia, and China are all on the same team, aligned against us.
ADDENDUM: In case you missed it over the weekend, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement caught, and deported, one of the worst of the worst.