On the menu today: If, in the past five months or so, you argued that the memorandum of understanding with the Iranian regime was a terrible mistake and an insane series of concessions to one of the world’s most duplicitous regimes, you were probably accused of having “Trump Derangement Syndrome.” This week, President Trump declared the cease-fire with Iran to be “a waste of time.” This morning, the Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. is preparing for “a short, intense military campaign” against Iran “after the U.S. midterm elections.” As high as gas prices are today — a national average of $4.24 — you’re probably going to want to fill up your tank before Election Day. Read on.
Trump Takes Aim at Iran, Again
President Trump, discussing Iran while speaking at a campaign rally in Corinth, Miss., Monday:
We did a little cease-fire, which I never liked very much. I consider it sort of a waste of time but, you know, you like to listen to professionals. But we did a little cease-fire, so we let some ships get in. You know, we want to be nice, but it was just a waste of time, as far as I’m concerned. But, uh, we’re doing a job.
We’re doing a job for you. And the price of oil — the price of oil is lower than it was, another thing the congressman said, with Biden and Obama, and they didn’t do anything having to do with destroying nuclear capability from Iran and our oil prices are lower than theirs. But they’ll be down, like I said, in Iowa, when I made a speech, it was $1.85 on the top of the — on the top of the jigger and it was $1.95. There were two pumps, $1.85, $1.95. I said, man, it’s a shame I have to do this, but we really had no choice, you know?
And it’s worked out fine and it’ll be over soon. And they’re never going to have a nuclear weapon. So really good — really good statement you made, congressman. Thank you. From 1979 and probably before that with a different name, you know? Right here in Mississippi, Toyota is investing $125 million to expand production at its Blue Springs plant.
The notion that the cease-fire was a “waste of time” is not particularly surprising to any of us who had been saying that there could be no lasting or productive agreement with a regime of Iranian mullahs that is so inherently hostile, so habitually duplicitous, so instinctively provocative. (Recall that the Iranians started breaking the terms of the agreement almost immediately.)
Trump’s comments about “you like to listen to professionals” appear to be shifting the blame to other figures in his administration for the decision to pursue a cease-fire with Iran. (The buck stops somewhere else.)
If Trump is referring to Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, then maybe he shouldn’t entrust them with representing the United States in every high-stakes international negotiation. If he is referring to Vice President JD Vance and his contention that the Iranian regime had turned over a new leaf — “you see people within the Iranian system, senior leadership, even IRGC officials say, you know what, we may have some animosity, we may have some mistrust, but we recognize the way that we’ve done business with the United States for 47 years is a mistake, let’s try something else” — then there are some much bigger problems here.
This morning, the Wall Street Journal reports that the administration is preparing for a “short, intense military campaign” against Iran . . . again . . . for the second time in less than a year:
The U.S. has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign after the U.S. midterm elections, people briefed on the conversations said.
The communications through diplomatic and military channels are among a growing number of indications that the U.S. and Israel are readying to launch a new round of heavy combat operations against Iran, risking a major escalation in hopes of degrading Tehran’s strength and pushing it toward negotiations.
The U.S. military is sending an additional Patriot system to Israel from Texas to beef up its missile defenses in the country, according to flight tracking data and two officials with knowledge of the movement. The U.S. has also moved troops off bases in the Middle East where they were vulnerable in preparation for an escalation, The Wall Street Journal has reported.
As we have noticed, operations that are planned as “short, intense military campaign” have a bad habit of becoming not-so-short. The other guys have a say in how they respond, and we have good sense of what Iran’s go-to move is: terrorism.
Axios reported Friday that director of national intelligence Jay Clayton wrote in a memo to Secretary of State Marco Rubio:
We have received intelligence that Iran has substantially increased efforts to target U.S. personnel. The lethal plotting efforts by the Iranians against U.S. citizens have reached advanced stages in both the Middle East and certain other countries.
And if large-scale hostilities resume, we should expect Iran’s proxies to get involved as well. From the Jerusalem Post, October 15:
The Iranian regime told Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon to be prepared for the United States to resume the war with Iran, following Wednesday’s report that Iran currently estimates that “an American attack is only a matter of time,” two diplomatic sources told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday.
Sources told the outlet that Hezbollah is “anticipating” war and “has succeeded in taking advantage of the extended ceasefire period to rebuild its military capabilities in southern Lebanon, both south and north of the Litani River.”
The Houthis are already attacking Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure; we should expect those attacks to intensify. You can figure out what the likely consequences for the world’s energy markets will be.
The White House press office told the Journal that it wouldn’t comment on “sensitive military plans that may or may not exist.” But the fact that the president is considering restarting the war against Iran isn’t much of a secret, because he’s told us himself.
On Friday, Trump said during a rally in Fort Myers, Fla., “We may do another little Epic Fury, or they’ll agree. If they’re smart, they’ll just say, let’s get down to business. But, you know, I doubt they’ll do that because perhaps they’re not smart. But we’re — we’re — we did a number on them.”
Once again, let us turn to the wisdom of Stephen Covey and his adage, “Begin with the end in mind.” What is it we actually want to achieve regarding the Iranian regime?
Does the administration want to topple the regime? Apparently not, because you don’t negotiate with a regime you’re aiming to topple. But if you believe that the primary problem with the Iranian regime is the Iranian regime, and that a group that regularly chants “death to America” can never be a partner in peace or even a détente-style policy of non-hostility, then your long-term goal must be regime change, and your shorter-term goals must be weakening, countering, and deterring the regime. (Recall that Trump fumed in August,“Iranian Leadership is unbelievably duplicitous!” Well, some of us find them believably duplicitous.)
When discussing Iran, the president reflexively reverts to the question of whether it is acceptable for Iran to have a nuclear weapon. Obviously, it is not.
But after Operation Midnight Hammer, on June 21, 2025, Trump declared to the world, “Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.” A few days later he reiterated, “Monumental Damage was done to all Nuclear sites in Iran, as shown by satellite images. Obliteration is an accurate term!” In September 2025, Trump said, “I also obliterated Iran’s nuclear hopes by totally annihilating their enriched uranium.”
But by February 21, Witkoff appeared on the Fox News program of president’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, and warned that the Iranians were “probably a week away from having industrial-grade bomb-making material, and that’s really dangerous.” How did the program go from being “totally annihilated” to a week away from having bomb-grade uranium?
A week later, when Trump announced the beginning of major combat operations in Iran, he said, “They attempted to rebuild their nuclear program.” There were no specifics about how, or how much of, the Iranian program had been rebuilt. Americans were understandably confused, because the president had spent half a year talking about how the program had been destroyed, and how it presumably couldn’t be reconstituted within just a couple months.
In an address to the nation in April, Trump said that the Iranian regime had been “right at the doorstep” of a “a nuclear weapon like nobody’s ever seen before.” He did not elaborate, but then said, “the nuclear sites that we obliterated with the B-2 bombers have been hit so hard that it would take months to get near the nuclear dust. And we have it under intense satellite surveillance and control.”
In June, in an interview with Jake Tapper on CNN, Vice President Vance said, “Right now, the Iranian nuclear program has been completely destroyed. Their capacity to enrich uranium, their enriched stockpile of fuel is buried far below the earth. . . . Have we decimated their nuclear program? Yes.”
If you keep telling people that the Iranian nuclear program is completely obliterated, annihilated, destroyed, decimated, etc. and then turn around and cite that nuclear program as a reason for why you need to continue or restart military operations, the American public will conclude you’re full of it.
ADDENDUM: President Trump, speaking in Corpus Christi, Texas, Tuesday:
Go to Florida, go to any one of our great places. You could even come to Mar-a-Lago. I said it the other night, you’ll be my guest at Mar-a-Lago. The problem is that for $5,000, the most you’ll be able to buy is a hamburger and maybe a small dessert. I don’t — I’m not even sure you could buy that. No, don’t go there, that’s not a good place if you’re price-conscious.
Joking about how expensive the food is at the Palm Beach private club that you own seems like a less-than-ideal message in an election cycle where the cost-of-living ––and in particular, grocery prices — ranks among the top issues. In case you’re wondering, the median household income in Corpus Christi is $67,394.
When I quote the president like that, some right-of-center folk get very mad. But you shouldn’t get mad at me for quoting him; you should get mad at him for saying it. The president said this at a rally for Republicans, in front of a big crowd and with the cameras rolling. It’s not like people won’t notice that he said it if I don’t write about it in this newsletter.
I know some of you would rather pretend that the president didn’t say that, but he did. Averting your eyes doesn’t make it go away.
And I know that we’re all supposed to be really mad that former President Barack Obama has demonstrated his snobbery by invoking the Cheesecake Factory while ridiculing Trump’s interior design choices, but . . . Obama’s been out of power for more than nine years now. Yes, Obama’s padded his already-considerable fortune with an insanely generous Netflix deal, and he’s got a beachfront estate and a mansion and two other palatial homes, and yes, no doubt, Obama likes to eat at fancy places, no doubt inquiring if they have canine pâté. But Obama isn’t running any part of the government right now, and I just don’t think it’s likely that Republicans are helped by demonstrations of indignation over besmirching the good name of the Cheesecake Factory, compared to discussing the actual state of the economy right now.