National Football League Hall-of-Famer Mike White subbing in for QB1 today. On the menu: the Hungarian elections, the reaction to them, and Democrats’ dark electoral forecast.
Orbán Wins Again
Viktor Orbán, who has served as prime minister of Hungary since 2010 — and spent a stint in the same office from 1998-2002 — won yet again in Sunday’s much-anticipated elections. His party, Fidesz, won two-thirds of the seats in parliament. Fidesz’s closest competitor was United for Hungary, an amalgamation of parties which included socialists, greens, and Jobbik, which was recognized as an antisemitic, neo-Nazi outfit until recently. Now, it presents itself as a moderate, “modern,” alternative to Fidesz.
Orbán’s triumph, we are meant to believe, represents a near-fatal blow to Hungarian democracy, and a painful one to the capital L, capital W, capital O, Liberal World Order. NPR previewed the race on Sunday morning with the headline: “The opposition in Hungary vows end to Orban’s autocratic rule.” Yascha Mounk reacted to the results by calling it a “dark day for democracy.”
Well, Merriam-Webster defines autocratic as “of, relating to, or being an autocracy.” And it defines autocracy as “government in which one person possesses unlimited power.” Tell me, Dear Reader, are those with access to the kind of unlimited, Palpatine-like powers NPR describes typically defeated at the ballot box?
Now, Orbán is no saint, and yes, that is an understatement. He enjoys close relationships with both Vladimir Putin’s Russia (although he has denounced the invasion of Ukraine) and Xi Jinping’s China. As Jimmy Quinn detailed here, Orbán has helped China carry out its post-pandemic propaganda program, and pursued deeper financial ties between his country and the genocidal one to the east. This is not the behavior of a man keen on being what Rod Dreher calls “the leader of the West now — the West that still remembers what the West is.”
Moreover, Orbán’s domestic behavior can fairly be called authoritarian. He has championed what he calls “illiberal democracy,” and enacted reforms to the country’s judicial system that undermine its independence. Evidence points to significant financial corruption on his watch as well.
But the failure of many of Orbán’s critics to accurately report on his regime points to the weakness of many of their arguments. Take this piece from The Atlantic, which, as National Review alum Daniel Foster notes, doesn’t exactly describe Orbán as an autocrat. Its author argues that the formation of a private, pro-Orbán media conglomerate that receives government funding is damning evidence of the corrosion of democracy in the country at the hands of its leader. That’s not exactly convincing to those of us who have watched NPR hold a pillow to the face of the Hunter Biden-laptop story and erroneously smear Supreme Court justices.
Orbán is not a U.S.-style conservative fusionist or anything especially close to it, and that’s a bad thing, in this writer’s opinion. But he is, quite obviously, the kind of conservative who appeals to Hungarians, and despite his many warts, that might just be okay. People in other countries are allowed to hold different opinions on LGBT issues, European integration, etc. than your average undergrad at Middlebury. Indeed, the implementation of those policies at the public’s will represents democracy in action, not its antithesis.
Orbán, the prime minister of a nation with a population only slightly larger than New York City’s and something approximating a friend of the Chinese Communist Party, is no more the savior of Western Civilization than Joe Biden is. But he’s also no threat to self-government across the world, and his critics’ flubbing of basic terms they proclaim to love leaves the rest of us wondering if they even know what it is that they value.
What Do the Democrats Have to Look Forward To?
Leading the website today is Democratic strategist Ruy Teixeira’s cover article for the latest issue of the magazine, which argues that Democrats have “paid a considerable price for their militant identity politics,” and decries their “relative indifference to economic growth.”
To the extent that these attitudes lead to the implementation of corrosive policies at the local, state, and federal levels, they are of concern. To the extent that they lead to electoral wipeouts, the likes of which we seem likely to be headed for in 2022, they’re not only restorative, but deliciously so.
Joe Biden came into the presidency a popular man, thanks in no small part to the behavior of his successor right up until the moment he left office. Those days are long gone, though. In an NBC News poll released last week, Biden’s approval rating sunk 15 points underwater. A Marist College poll found the same deficit among the general public, showing Biden four points underwater with non-white voters, and a whopping 20 leagues under the sea with independents.
Even worse for Democrats, Biden is likely to serve as a drag on the Democratic ticket in key 2022 states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona, and North Carolina, presenting Republicans with an opportunity to retake the Senate and stymie Biden’s ability to stack the judiciary for the remaining two years of his term.
Biden himself is, without a doubt, a not-insignificant part of the problem. He can barely spit out a sentence. Republicans have his demonstrable failures in Afghanistan and on Build Back Better to lambast. His running mate is historically unpopular. His press secretary is reportedly on the verge of jumping ship. His chief of staff reads Jen Rubin columns like they’re the Bible.
But, as Teixeira argues, the deeper problem is the unpopularity of the progressive agenda on immigration, crime, and the economy, as well as its vessel’s perceived anti-patriotism. And Biden, despite his misguided policies and incompetence, actually represents a kind of bulwark against the worst impulses indicted by Teixeira. In other words, the Democrats face both short-term problems facilitated by the Biden administration, and longer-term ones that will come to the forefront after it’s over.
ADDENDUM: Jim Geraghty is out this week, so you’ll be blessed with Alexandra DeSanctis for the next two days and cursed with yours truly again on Thursday and Friday. Prepare yourselves for the incoming Jets mock draft to close out the week.