On the menu today: If you say you don’t want to hear about the latest polls because you think they’re a media-run pro-Democrat psy-op designed to demoralize Republican voters, fine. Let’s put aside the public opinion surveys. Response rates to pollsters’ calls keep getting lower and lower, anyway. Instead, let’s turn our attention to where GOP-aligned groups are spending their money in this year’s Senate races. Anybody can say they believe their preferred candidate is going to win a race, but funding is finite (albeit large), and if a group stops spending money somewhere . . . that’s usually a bad sign for that candidate. Read on.
Follow the Trail
I don’t begrudge Republicans or other right-of-center Americans for looking for signs that the polling is inaccurate, and that the GOP isn’t going to get deluged by a blue wave in the upcoming midterms. And it is possible that there’s a chunk of Republican voters who never respond to pollsters, and that there’s a bigger chunk of them than Democratic voters who never respond to pollsters, and that the final numbers when all the votes are counted will look better for Republicans than the polls currently do.
For example, in his latest Iowa survey — a state that has fooled pollsters before — State Navigate executive director Chaz Nuttycombe warned that the number of rural Iowans who “ignored” his survey is alarming.
“We think this could be a Canary in the Cornfields for Iowa polling this year,” he warned. “Will rural areas in Iowa swing 25-35 points leftward of 2024 in the non-IA GOV races?” Nuttycombe asked. “Yes? Polling is probably right. No? Probably not good for pollsters, Bob.”
The left-of-center pollster G. Elliott Morris issued a similar admonition on Tuesday to his fellow data analysts. While he did not rule out the possibility that this year’s polling error actually undercounts the Democratic Party’s strength (which is surely possible), “low-effort” poll respondents present a real conundrum. “And if this measure of effort is at all predictive of the voting behavior of people who don’t answer the polls (who can be thought to have an effort of zero), the polls could be off in terms of vote margin by up to 3.5 points favoring one party this November,” he wrote.
But we have measuring sticks for how a race is developing beyond polls.
This country has people whose job is to elect Republicans. They have, in addition to polling numbers, access to all kinds of data — focus groups, dial tests, reports and anecdotes from door-knockers, contact rates, early and absentee voting data, voter registration trends, past turnout and performance, analytics teams. They have considerable financial resources, but not infinite ones. They must prioritize which candidates they want to spend the most money supporting, and sometimes they must conclude a candidate just doesn’t have a shot.
Six of the seven highest-spending outside groups in this midterm election cycle are right-of-center or seeking to elect Republicans, and all of them have spent $56 million this year or more.
As of October 5, Senate Leadership Fund spent more than $173 million, Texas PAC spent $133 million, No Going Back PAC spent $128 million, the Congressional Leadership Fund spent $67 million, Americans for Prosperity Action spent $66 million, and Defend American Jobs spent $56 million. The only left-of-center or Democrat-supporting group in the top seven is WinSenate PAC, which spent $108 million.
(For perspective, this year Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will count $34.6 million against the team salary cap.)
Remember the mantra, “Watch what they do, not what they say.” Let’s look at what these groups are doing.
One week ago, Senate Leadership Fund canceled its remaining ad spending in the Senate race in North Carolina, after spending more than $30 million there. What’s more, the campaign of Republican candidate Michael Whatley has temporarily pulled ads on television. Whatley has consistently trailed former Governor Roy Cooper in the polls.
Senate Leadership Fund did not halt spending in North Carolina because they think Whatley has got this locked up. Whether or not you choose to believe the public polling in the race is accurate, the SLF decision-makers have concluded that Cooper’s lead is insurmountable.
The SLF stopped spending money in North Carolina right around the time they decided to spend $14 million to help GOP Senator Roger Marshall in Kansas in his race against Adam Hamilton. Also, earlier this week, Senate Leadership Fund decided to spend $5 million in South Carolina to help GOP Senator Darline Graham in her bid against Democrat Annie Andrews.
Now, Kansas and South Carolina are normally heavily Republican-leaning states. And it’s not like every Republican running statewide in those places is polling badly; in the Kansas governor’s race, polling consistently puts Republican Ty Masterson ahead of Democrat Cindy Holscher. In South Carolina’s governor’s race, Republican State Attorney General Alan Wilson looks like a safe bet against Democrat Jermaine Johnson.
The Senate Leadership Fund does not spend money on uncompetitive races. Last cycle, they spent money in nine out of 33 Senate races. If they’re spending money to defend GOP incumbents like Marshall or Graham, they see at least a little reason to worry about those races. And they feel that money is better spent there than to help Whatley in North Carolina.
The Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) is still running ads in the Senate race in Georgia, where polling indicates incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff is well ahead of Republican challenger Mike Collins.
Keep in mind, the sums SLF spent in Kansas and South Carolina are pocket change compared to the amounts they’ve spent in some of the top-tier races. At the end of September, SLF added another $20 million to help Republican Ashley Hinson in her bid against Democrat Josh Turek, bringing the group’s spending in that state to $53 million.
In Ohio, SLF is up to $93 million to help Senator Jon Husted in his bid against Sherrod Brown.
And in Texas, SLF has spent an astounding $131 million in Texas, as of October 3. Now, some of this reflects the fact that Texas is a big, expensive state, with 20 media markets. But it also is an indicator that Republican nominee Ken Paxton is a much, much weaker candidate than usual, and SLF does not believe the “it’s Texas, they always vote for the GOP statewide” argument floating around among certain Republicans.
When I write that things do not look good for Paxton, I get a lot of tantrum-throwing types insisting that I’m rooting for James Talarico or somehow unfairly assailing the good name and sterling reputation of the honorable and righteous Ken Paxton.
In 2024, Texas had a U.S. Senate race between incumbent Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Colin Allred. Cruz won quite easily, 53 percent to 44 percent.
Do you want to know how much the Senate Leadership Fund spent on the Texas Senate race in 2024? Not a single penny. They didn’t have to run any ads down there, because Cruz knew how to take care of business, having been through a tough race against Beto O’Rourke back in 2018.
Keep in mind, Texas PAC was created, is run, and is partially funded by Senate Leadership Fund, specifically to save Paxton’s bacon. All of TexasPAC’s $133 million in spending has been on ads against Talarico and to help Paxton. No Going Back PAC is Trump’s PAC; it “has also kicked in nearly $24 million” in Texas.
So just among those three groups, Republican donors have spent a combined $288 million in ads to help Paxton. For perspective, the total salaries of everyone on the Dallas Cowboys this year is $315 million.
So, you can run around saying, “The polls in Texas are understating Paxton’s support, and he’s leading this race.” But know that the people whose job it is to elect Republicans are not acting like that is the case. They are spending money and running ads as if they believe that Paxton is trailing.
As of the end of September, GOP groups had outspent Democratic groups by $61 million in the state of Texas.
And, judging from the polls, Talarico is still ahead!
Since Labor Day, GOP spending on campaign advertising has skyrocketed. And if you feel like you haven’t seen much of a change in the polls in the past month or so… you’re right.
High-quality public surveys show Democratic Senate candidates tied or leading in Alaska, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas — the same as before Labor Day. Democrats’ lead on the generic congressional ballot has slightly widened since, from about six points to roughly nine, according to analyst Nate Silver’s polling average.
This doesn’t mean that Republican hopes of keeping the Senate are doomed. Susan Collins is still hanging in there, up in Maine. (She’s actually polling way better than six years ago, when she won reelection by 8.6 percentage points.) In Michigan, Mike Rogers appears to be keeping it close with Abdul El-Sayed, and it’s a similar story for Michele Tafoya up in Minnesota, up against Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan. Republicans might have hoped that John Sununu could do a little better against Mike Pappas in New Hampshire, but he’s still somewhat competitive.
(An irony of this cycle is that while Republicans are worried about traditional GOP-leaning states like Alaska, Texas, South Carolina, Georgia, and Kansas, they’ve got a better-than-usual shot in blue-ish states like Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. SLF is running ads in Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and New Hampshire.
When all is said and done, I don’t think the story of the 2026 midterms is going to be a particularly complicated one. President Trump has always been a polarizing figure, and midterm elections usually go poorly for the president’s party. The decision to go to war against Iran triggered a dramatic increase in gas prices, both unleaded and diesel, and the high prices at the pump did not let up as summer turned to autumn. The president was never the most disciplined communicator, and he spent much of the past year talking up the White House ballroom, the Lincoln Memorial reflecting pool, and his victory arch when Americans were worried about filling their tank and buying their groceries. And the typical Republican incumbent has an extremely difficult time separating himself from the president and his record.
Early voting is underway in Virginia, South Dakota, Minnesota, California, Maine, Montana, Nebraska, Indiana, New Mexico, Ohio, Wyoming, and Arizona.
As of this morning, 448,949 ballots have been cast here in Virginia.
ADDENDUM: In case you missed it, our Dan McLaughlin sat down with Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito for an interview. Read it here and here.