On the menu today: I return from vacation just as the headline “President Trump indicted” runs for the fourth time in five months. Our Brittany Bernstein has the story about Trump’s indictment in Georgia, and our Andy McCarthy lays out how this particular set of criminal charges — 13 in all — could be the most enduring legal danger for Trump: “Because our federalist system makes the states primarily responsible for the conduct and policing of elections, Fulton County district attorney Fani Willis has an array of state laws that more directly target misconduct in connection with the electoral process. She may have an easier time proving that the same conduct was not only egregious but illegal.” Andy also points out that presidents have no authority to pardon state crimes — so neither Trump nor Ron DeSantis nor any other future Trump-friendly president could erase the conviction or the consequences.
I spent last week visiting three of America’s friendly Nordic allies, and it prompted me to look up some figures — revealing that, despite a lot of the rhetoric you hear, Europe hasn’t been dragging its feet in helping Ukraine. In fact, by several measures, some tiny European countries are digging deeper into their pockets than the arsenal of democracy is.
Europe’s Not-Insignificant Aid to Ukraine
The first argument against additional U.S. aid to Ukraine is often, “It isn’t our fight, so we shouldn’t be helping them at all” — an unpersuasive assertion that there is no U.S. interest at stake at all in Russia’s attempted brutal conquest of a U.S. ally on the doorstep of the NATO alliance, an act of wanton military aggression with consequences for world food and energy markets that has triggered a humanitarian crisis. The next most common objections are, “Europe should take the lead” and “Europe isn’t paying its fair share.”
Once you look at the numbers, those two arguments don’t hold much water, because Europe is, if not taking the lead, running alongside us, and certain European countries are paying much more than any reasonable definition of their “fair share.”
Make no mistake, continental Europe is much closer to the conflict than the U.S. and has even more to lose if Russia annexes all of Ukraine and brings its forces to the borders of NATO members Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania as well as Moldova, where Russia allegedly tried to stir up a coup earlier this year.
But if Europe as a whole isn’t quite taking the lead in assisting Ukraine, it isn’t lagging behind, either.
From the beginning of the war to May 31 of this year, the European Union countries, collectively, are just a bit behind the U.S., contributing, donating, or loaning nearly $75 billion to the beleaguered country. That figure includes combined military equipment and ammunition, financial assistance, and humanitarian aid. The American contribution in that period is just a bit higher, at $77.5 billion.
(All of the figures in today’s newsletter are from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy’s database and analysis and are converted from Euros to dollars at this weekend’s exchange rate. The Kiel Institute only measures government-to-government assistance, and does not count sums from private charities, churches, the Red Cross, or other international organizations.)
When you throw in the non-EU countries in Europe — such as the United Kingdom ($10.9 billion in total aid), Norway ($2.3 billion, more on them below), and Switzerland ($427 million), Europe actually outpaces the U.S. by roughly $88 billion to $77 billion.
In other words, Europeans are kicking in about $1.14 for every dollar the United States sends in military, financial, and economic aid to Ukraine. And despite the perception that the U.S. and the European Union are roughly economically equivalent, the U.S., as a whole, is a heck of a lot richer than the E.U. as a whole. According to the International Monetary Fund, the EU’s GDP is $17.8 trillion, while the U.S. GDP is about $26.8 trillion.
As for the argument “Europe isn’t paying its fair share,” that depends upon which countries you use to define “Europe,” and how you define “fair share.”
One key question is how you measure the aid provided to Ukraine — by the sum total of the military, humanitarian, and financial aid, or as a percentage of GDP. Countries with a lot of resources can reasonably be expected to spare more, and a small country with a small GDP, smaller tax revenue, and a smaller military necessarily has fewer arms and other resources to spare.
By the end of May, tiny Estonia had contributed $473 million in total aid, which ranks as the 21st-highest total out of all the countries in the world. But as a percentage of GDP — Estonia’s GDP is roughly $37 billion — that ranks first in the world.
NATO’s three Baltic members — Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania — are on the metaphorical front line in any conflict with Russia. Putin’s regime has been harassing those countries with cyberattacks and other non-kinetic forms of opposition for years, and no one in Europe felt particularly assured when China’s ambassador to France said in April that former Soviet countries don’t have “effective status in international law.” It’s not surprising that the Baltic countries see Ukraine’s fight as their fight. Latvia’s donations to Ukraine equal 1.09 percent of their GDP, and Lithuania’s equal almost 1 percent.
After the Baltic trio, Poland (seven-tenths of a percentage point of that country’s GDP) and Slovakia (six-tenths of a percentage point) rank fourth and fifth. The Nordic countries also rank near the top when their donations are compared to their countries’ GDP.
As noted on Twitter/X while I was away, in Copenhagen, Denmark, the Ukrainian flag is almost as ubiquitous as the Danish flag, visible at the city’s central train station; above an H&M; in front of the Saint Ansgar’s Cathedral; and above the Scandic Palace hotel, next to City Hall. For what it’s worth, I spotted a couple of Ukrainian flags while wandering around downtown Stockholm, Sweden, but none while wandering around downtown Oslo, Norway.
Denmark’s GDP is about $400 billion, which sounds like a lot, and by most measures, it is. If Denmark were an American state, its GDP would rank 15th, just behind Michigan and just ahead of Colorado. It would be absurd to expect Denmark’s total support for Ukraine to be comparable to that of the total contribution from the United States. But as a percentage of the country’s GDP, Denmark’s is higher than America’s.
As of May 31, Denmark ranks ninth overall in total aid to Ukraine, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy’s database and analysis, with $1.72 billion. That’s a bit more than a half a percentage point of Denmark’s GDP, ranking it sixth in the world. As a percentage of GDP, Denmark’s military contributions rank sixth in the world and its humanitarian contributions rank fourth in the world.
When it comes to aiding Ukraine, tiny Denmark is punching well above its weight.
You can see the Danish government’s summary of its aid here, although keep in mind that the site measures the aid in the local currency of the Danish Krone. Denmark has been a member of NATO since its founding.
For perspective, in the same period, the U.S. ranked first overall with the highest total value of donations of aid and equipment at $77 billion. But because our GDP is so much larger, that much larger sum is just three-tenths of 1 percentage point of our GDP — ranking us twelfth in the world. As a percentage of GDP, U.S. military contributions rank 15th in the world and our humanitarian contributions rank 18th in the world. Our financial commitments — which include budgetary aid to Ukraine’s Economic Support Fund and loans — rank sixth in the world in that category.
You can see the U.S. government’s summary of its aid to Ukraine here.
As of May 31, Sweden ranks tenth overall in total aid to Ukraine, according to the Kiel Institute’s database and analysis, with nearly $2 billion. That’s about three-tenths of 1 percent of Sweden’s GDP, ranking it 13th in the world. As a percentage of GDP, Sweden’s military contributions rank tenth in the world, and its humanitarian contributions rank 15th in the world.
You can see the Swedish government’s summary of its aid here, although keep in mind that figures are listed in the local currency of the Swedish krona. Sweden is in the final stretch of formally joining NATO.
As of May 31, Norway ranks eighth overall in total aid to Ukraine, according to the Kiel Institute, with nearly $2.3 billion in aid. That’s nearly one-half of 1 percent of Norway’s GDP, ranking it seventh in the world. As a percentage of GDP, Norway’s military contributions rank twelfth in the world, and its humanitarian contributions rank the same. You can see the Norwegian government’s summary of its aid here, although keep in mind that figures are listed in the local currency of the Norwegian kroner. Norway has been a member of NATO since its founding; many people forget that it shares a short stretch of border with Russia, above the Arctic Circle.
Germany, which has gotten a lot of grief for foot-dragging and delays in sending weapons systems to Ukraine, has now given $11.6 billion in total aid, which ranks it third in the world in total sums. The Germans rank second in the world in sending humanitarian aid, and are now up to second in military aid, which is laid out here.
Who’s straggling?
Considering how France has the seventh-largest economy in the world, one might expect France to rank a little higher than eleventh in total aid at $1.5 billion, and 28th as a percentage of GDP. France ranks tenth in humanitarian commitments, ninth in financial commitments, and 15th in military commitments. As a percentage of GDP, France ranks 24th in humanitarian aid, 16th in financial aid, and 27th in military aid. You can find a list of some of France’s forms of aid here, which range from MLRS rocket launchers to Crotale air-defense systems to light bulbs to a mobile DNA-analysis laboratory to more than 20,000 Ukrainians enrolled in the French education system.
Correspondingly, Italy has the eighth-largest economy in the world but ranks significantly lower in aid to Ukraine in each category: twelfth highest in total aid at $1.46 billion and 26th as a percentage of GDP. The Italian government summarizes its efforts to help Ukraine here.
And then there’s the government of Hungary, which has not only not given much from its own resources, but has at times blocked or impeded additional European Union assistance to Ukraine. Hungary has donated $51 million according to the Kiel Institute. Hungary has a smaller GDP than you might expect — ranking behind Peru, Iraq, Kazakhistan, and Algeria — and yet Hungary’s donation is only two-tenths of 1 percent of that sum.
The Kiel Institute’s next update of its figures is scheduled for September 7.
This does not mean that there are no limits on what the U.S. can reasonably and safely send to Ukraine. As this newsletter mentioned back in April, there are four weapons systems that the U.S will require a long time to restock to pre-war levels. At the “surge” or prioritized production rate, it will take two and a half years to restock the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) mobile-artillery system and vehicles, four years to restock at least one category of 155 millimeter shells, five and a half years to restock the Javelin anti-tank-missile stockpile, and six and a half years to restock the Stinger air-defense-missile stockpile. It is reasonable for the U.S. to tell Ukraine that there are particular weapons systems that are in limited supply and can no longer be spared because of defense needs elsewhere.
Beyond that, the U.S. has a lot of top-of-the-line military supplies lying around, unused. For example, the U.S. Air Force has more than 1,000 F-16 Fighting Falcon aircraft in its inventory.
Back in January, President Biden announced that the U.S. would send 31 M1A1 Abrams battle tanks to Ukraine. The first batch was approved for shipment last week, and should arrive in Ukraine in early autumn. The U.S. Army is believed to have about 2,500 Abrams tanks in various versions, with an additional 3,700 in storage.
In a lot of circumstances, America’s European allies can be justifiably accused of skimping on defense spending, downplaying threats on the international stage, and blithely assuming that Uncle Sam will bail them out if the situation gets really bad. (It’s sort of the tradition of the 20th century.) But in the circumstances of getting military, financial, and humanitarian aid across the border to a pro-Western, democratically elected government at risk of being annexed by Russia, a lot of our European allies are really stepping up to the plate — most notably the Baltic and Nordic countries.
ADDENDUM: Thanks to Dominic Pino and Noah Rothman for holding down the fort during my travels. You notice all it took for the New York Jets to look like a well-oiled machine in preseason action was for me to be in a different hemisphere.