On the menu today: No, you don’t need to cite an unnamed “smartest data guy I know” or cast the rune stones or inspect the entrails of a ritually sacrificed animal to understand what the voters were saying in the 2026 midterm elections. The message was loud, clear, and explicit, and beyond the results of the 124 million votes, about 100,000 voters took the time to answer a long and detailed survey to give an even more specific sense of how they feel about the state of the country and the policies enacted under President Trump. This is not a mystery, people. Read on.
The Answers Are in the Exit Poll
When it comes to drawing conclusions about why Republicans experienced such a colossal rejection at the ballot box on Tuesday, we don’t have to rely on the vice president’s unnamed “smartest data guy I know” or “another pollster — one of the smartest people I know in politics.”
We have this extensive and detailed survey of approximately 100,000 voters in 45 states, called the exit poll. The poll includes in-person interviews on Election Day, and it combines the in-person poll with other methods — mail, phone, and online — to account for in-person, early, and mail-in voters. You know what’s nice about an exit poll? There are no “likely voters” or “registered voters.” We know that everyone who responded was a voter, at least this year.
We don’t have to guess what voters were thinking. They told us.
“It was the Iran war.”
Yup, indisputably, that was a big part of it. When asked, “Thinking about your vote for Congress, how important to you was the war in Iran?” 34 percent answered “crucial,” another 40 percent said it was a “major factor,” 19 percent said it was a “minor factor,” and just 6 percent said it was “not a factor.”
The 74 percent of respondents who answered “crucial” or a “major factor” (74 percent) voted for Democrats by a 64 percent to 34 percent margin; among the 26 percent who said a “minor factor” or “not a factor,” 69 percent voted for Republicans, 29 percent for Democrats.
The survey also asked, “Did the U.S. make the right decision or wrong decision in taking military action against Iran?” Just 37 percent of respondents said it was the right decision, and 63 percent said it was the wrong decision.
In a result that is good news for the noninterventionists in the GOP, when asked, “In world affairs, do you think the United States should take a more active role, a less active role, or about the same role as now?” 28 percent of voters said more active, 43 percent said less active, and 28 percent said about the same. But here’s something a little intriguing. The “more active” respondents preferred Democrats, 74 percent to 25 percent. But the “less active” respondents also preferred Democrats, 63 percent to 35 percent. Only the “about the same” respondents preferred Republicans, 75 percent to 24 percent.
You could argue that the Trump administration has figured out just the right level of role of activity in world affairs to irk both sides.
When asked, which one of six issues is the most important facing the country, just 4 percent said “foreign policy,” but that might be a little misleading, as the consequence of the war in Iran is much higher energy prices, and 39 percent of voters answered “the economy.” But then again, another component of the Trump economic record is the enactment of widespread tariffs and trade wars. And speaking of that. . .
“It was the tariffs.”
Yup, indisputably, that was a big part of it, too. When asked, “Do you think Trump’s tariff policies have helped or hurt the national economy,” just 21 percent of voters said they had helped, 66 percent said they had hurt, and 12 percent said they had made no difference.
When asked, “Do you think Trump’s tariff policies have helped or hurt the economy in your area?” the numbers weren’t any better. Just 14 percent said they had helped, 64 percent said they had hurt, and 22 percent said they had made no difference. There is really no way to look at these election results and exonerate the tariffs and trade wars.
It was a less specific question, but almost two-thirds of voters (63 percent) said they thought “higher than usual prices” were “more because of Trump’s policies” and just 37 percent thought they were more “because of factors outside Trump’s control.”
“It was ICE and immigration enforcement.”
Yeah, that was a contributing factor, too. Fifty-eight percent of respondents told exit pollsters that the Trump administration’s actions on immigration enforcement had gone to far. Another 20 percent said they had “not gone far enough,” and 22 percent said they had “been about right.”
Asked whether they approve or disapprove of the way Immigration and Customs Enforcement is handling its job, 40 percent said approve, 60 percent said disapprove.
Sixty-one percent said immigrants to the U.S. today do more to help the country; 39 percent said they do more to hurt the country.
On that list of six issues to prioritize, 14 percent answered “immigration,” and within that group, 89 percent voted for Republicans, 10 percent voted for Democrats.
One minor bright spot for the GOP: Asked which party is better able to handle immigration, 41 percent said Democrats, 43 percent said Republicans.
The exit polls indicate that the 2026 electorate was 73 percent white, 9 percent black, 10 percent Latino, 4 percent Asian, and 5 percent identifying as “other.”
Throw away that “changing demographics mean Republicans can’t win” crap. In terms of demographics, this isn’t that different a country than it was two years ago, when Republicans were winning the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives. And nationally, the electorate was almost three-quarters white! The GOP wipeout was not because minorities and immigrants flooded the polls. It was because just about every demographic, including whites, wasn’t happy with the past two years of Republican governance.
Now, with that said, if there’s a widespread perception that your party plays footsie with white nationalists, a whole lot of minorities aren’t going to want to vote for you and will want to vote for the other party. If your party’s leader has dined with Nick Fuentes at his home, if your convention speaker keeps talking to guys who argue Hitler wasn’t really the villain of World War II, if you nominate a candidate who rages about Indian-American University of Texas students after the Longhorns beat Ohio State . . . what do you think is going to happen? Why would you think Republicans would do well among minority voters if figures associated with Republicans keep telling minority voters that they hate them?
“The Republicans stayed home.”
Eh, not that much; when asked to identify themselves by party, 35 percent of voters told the exit pollsters said Democrat, 32 percent said Republican, and 33 percent said independent. Two years ago, 31 percent of exit poll respondents identified as Democrat, 35 percent identified as Republican, and 34 percent said independent. That’s definitely a shift, but it’s not a huge shift; each party and the independents make up about a third of the electorate from year to year.
“Republicans flipped to the Democrats.”
Eh, a little. Eight percent of self-identified Republican men and 5 percent of self-identified Republican women said they voted for Democrats, while just 2 percent of self-identified Democratic men and just 1 percent of self-identified Democratic women voted for Republicans.
No, the much bigger factor was that independents started voting for Democrats in much larger numbers. Two years ago, 46 percent of independents voted for Donald Trump — actually slightly less than the 49 percent who voted for Kamala Harris, but enough to keep it close and make up for it in higher GOP turnout. This year, independents split in favor of Democrats, 58 percent to 38 percent.
In addition to party ID, the exit poll asked about ideology; 26 percent of voters identified as liberal, 41 identified as moderate, and 33 percent identified as conservative. Those self-identified moderates voted for Democrats over Republicans by a two-to-one margin.
Twenty-four percent of respondents considered themselves “MAGA,” 75 percent did not.
Eighteen percent of respondents considered themselves “a democratic socialist,” 81 percent did not.
Eighty-four percent of voters said that neither they, nor anyone in their households, were a member of a labor union.
Nine percent of respondents were first-time voters.
Just 22 percent of voters were parents with children under 18; 78 percent were not.
Eight percent of voters identified as gay, lesbian, bisexual, or transgender. More than half of voters, 52 percent, said they think “support for transgender rights in society” has “gone too far.” Just 26 percent said it had not gone far enough, and 22 percent it has “been about right.”
Considering how more than half the electorate has the more Republican-leaning position on transgender rights, but Republicans still got wiped out from coast to coast, we can conclude that many voters may agree with the GOP on this issue, but they don’t vote based upon it. It’s a second-tier issue at best.
Also, indisputably significant numbers of Americans did vote as if Trump himself was on the ballot. While 40 percent said president was not a factor in their vote for their representative in the House, 44 percent said it was “to express opposition to Donald Trump,” and just 16 percent said it was “to express support for Donald Trump.”
In the exit poll, Trump’s approval rating was at 37 percent, with 63 percent of respondents disapproving. Just 27 percent said he had “improved economic conditions in the U.S.,” while 66 percent said he had “worsened economic conditions in the U.S.,” and just 7 percent said he had no impact on economic conditions.
Eighty-nine percent of respondents said that the cost of living was “crucial” or a “major factor” in their vote for Congress. When asked what President Trump prioritized more, 62 percent answered, “his own personal interests,” while 38 percent answered, “the country’s interests.”
Finally, when asked, “would you say Donald Trump has the mental capability to serve effectively as president?” 43 percent said “yes,” 57 percent said “no.”
ADDENDUM: I will be out this coming Monday and Tuesday, with John Puri and Noah Rothman filling in.