Five Takeaways from the Virginia Governor’s Race

G lenn Youngkin’s upset victory over Terry McAuliffe in the Virginia governor’s race upends many of the assumptions that were being made in politics a year ago, and it is an ominous sign for President Biden and for Democrats heading into the 2022 midterms. What follows are five initial takeaways.

Revenge of the Parents

Last week, I wrote about the risk Democrats were taking by underestimating the political power of parents who are becoming more assertive about what their children are taught. The unnecessarily long school closures in Virginia simultaneously made parents angry and distrustful of school boards and unionized teachers while forcing parents to become more aware of their children’s curricula. Combine that with issues such as the teaching of CRT, explicit materials in schools, and the Loudoun County rape cover-up, and it reached a boiling point. Of course, Terry McAuliffe gave the gift of all political gifts when he said, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.” But as I’ve noted, this was not a gaffe — McAuliffe was simply stating what an overwhelming majority of Democrats believe. Unfortunately for Democrats, according to CNN exit polls, 51 percent of the electorate said that parents should have “a lot” of say in what schools teach, and those voters went for Youngkin 76 percent to 23 percent. The big problem for Democrats is that education has become a classic issue in which Democrats, by the nature of their constituency, are forced to take positions that run contrary to the electorate. A Democrat cannot come out against CRT or defy the teachers’ unions. Even as it was clear how badly McAuliffe was hurting on the education issue, he felt the need to have Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers, speak at his election-eve rally. Republicans should ride this issue hard and continue to force Democrats to choose between parents and unionized teachers. Because guess what? There are a lot more parents.

Biden Is a Millstone around Democrats’ Necks

The president is now underwater in a state that he won by double digits a year ago. According to exit polls, 54 percent of Virginia voters disapprove of Biden, compared with 45 percent who approve. But that understates the intensity of the opposition. Exits showed 46 percent “strongly disapprove” of Biden compared with just 23 percent who “strongly approve.” It is simply hard to win elections when the leader of your party is so unpopular.

Youngkin Showed How to Successfully Walk the Trump Tightrope

Youngkin accomplished a feat that will be essential for any Republican hoping to navigate the current period. That is, he managed to avoid getting tagged as anti-Trump without being like Trump. He said enough complimentary things to secure Trump’s support, and he avoided incurring the wrath of Trump’s supporters by declining to respond like a trained seal every time the media prompted him to condemn Trump. At the same time, Youngkin focused on other issues, such as education (as mentioned above), as well as the economy and jobs, taxes, and the adoption of less restrictive COVID-19 policies. Despite McAuliffe’s attempts to tie Youngkin to Trump, the bottom line is that Youngkin made it hard for that attack to stick. It’s difficult to convince voters that somebody is Trump when he speaks calmly, reasonably, and seriously and avoids bombastic rhetoric and crude personal attacks. Biden, in a desperate late visit to Virginia, launched a disgraceful attack on Youngkin: “Extremism can come in many forms. It can come in the rage of a mob driven to assault the Capitol. It can come in a smile and a fleece vest.” The fact that Biden felt compelled to make that comment demonstrated that the effort to present Youngkin as an extremist failed. In the end, voters had a 52 percent favorable to 44 percent unfavorable view of Youngkin, compared with a 45 percent favorable to 51 percent unfavorable view of McAuliffe. Another way of putting this is that Youngkin found a way to turn out Trump voters without turning off traditional Republicans.

Turns Out Virginia Isn’t as Blue without Trump

Over the past 15 years, we have watched as Virginia rapidly turned from a reliably red state, to a purple state, to a blue state. Over the past five years, it looked as if it had become deeply blue. But it turns out, without Trump on the ballot or in office, the state is much more in play for Republicans. It says something that in the closing days of the campaign, Republicans were fretting about the possibility of Trump’s visiting the state and messing everything up, while Democrats were praying for Trump to come. In fact, McAuliffe was so desperate that he was even spreading the lie that Trump was coming to Virginia (the former president had hinted he might show up, but it quickly became clear he would not). Trump is simply like kryptonite for Republicans hoping to win in a state with a critical mass of suburban voters. At 42 percent, his favorable rating in the state was even lower than Biden’s. When he was leading the party, Trump’s weakness created the mirage of liberal policies being more popular in Virginia than they actually were. In fact, exits showed 52 percent of Virginia voters said the Democratic Party was “too liberal.” When you remove Trump from the picture, Virginia looks more like a purple state again.

2022 Could Be a Bloodbath for Democrats

In recent election cycles, Republicans have seemingly been between a rock and a hard place. Trump energized rural voters and working-class white voters, which benefited the GOP in some places, but he significantly turned off suburban voters, which led to the losses of the House, Senate, and White House starting in 2018. The challenge facing Republicans was always how to make inroads among suburbanites without losing the passion from other groups that Trump energized. But Youngkin, even while making gains in the suburbs, outperformed Trump in rural areas. What should be alarming to Democrats is that next year, they will have to run in a lot of states and congressional districts in which the urban/rural/suburban divide is much more favorable to Republicans than in Virginia.

Cook Political Report data guru Dave Wasserman stated the obvious: