Population Shift: Blue-State Exodus Continues Post-Covid

The Census Bureau has announced its year-end estimates of state population changes, which are dated as of July 1, 2023. They once again show the continuing trend of America’s population shifting out of its bluest states and into red states, mainly in the Sun Belt. While the trend is not entirely uniform, it is a powerful one cutting across regions. The shifts in the past year have been less dramatic than they were during the Covid pandemic, when the differing approaches to emergency governance among American states presented obvious distinctions in employment, education, worship, and entertainment.

But while those trends slowed down, their direction has not changed. It remains to be seen if California in particular does any better in the mid-2023 to mid-2024 estimates, which will include a full year of immigration following the lifting of Title 42 border restrictions. As I noted in January, one reason California and to a lesser extent New York have been hit so hard by population declines during the pandemic is that they typically depend upon an influx of immigrants to take the place of Americans who tire of those states’ bad governance.

About the Author

Dan McLaughlin

Dan McLaughlin is a senior writer at National Review Online and a fellow at National Review Institute.

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The Census Bureau has announced its year-end estimates of state population changes, which are dated as of July 1, 2023. They once again show the continuing trend of America’s population shifting out of its bluest states and into red states, mainly in the Sun Belt. While the trend is not entirely uniform, it is a powerful one cutting across regions. The shifts in the past year have been less dramatic than they were during the Covid pandemic, when the differing approaches to emergency governance among American states presented obvious distinctions in employment, education, worship, and entertainment.

But while those trends slowed down, their direction has not changed. It remains to be seen if California in particular does any better in the mid-2023 to mid-2024 estimates, which will include a full year of immigration following the lifting of Title 42 border restrictions. As I noted in January, one reason California and to a lesser extent New York have been hit so hard by population declines during the pandemic is that they typically depend upon an influx of immigrants to take the place of Americans who tire of those states’ bad governance.