Republican Presidential Race: Iowa Could Still Surprise Us

Tonight’s debate between Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley may not topple Donald Trump from his front-runner’s perch. But history shows that primary electorates can switch course on a dime at the end.

Iowa polls have been remarkably steady for months. Trump has averaged between 47 and 52 percent in the RealClearPolitics average since late May. After some initially strong support, DeSantis since late July has fluctuated between 17 and 20 percent, although recently his support has slowly declined to 16 percent. The only movement that’s mattered has been Haley’s steady rise to her current high point, which has her in a statistical tie with DeSantis for second place.

About the Author

Henry Olsen

Henry Olsen is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center and the author of The Working-Class Republican: Ronald Reagan and the Return of Blue-Collar Conservatism.

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Tonight’s debate between Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley may not topple Donald Trump from his front-runner’s perch. But history shows that primary electorates can switch course on a dime at the end.

Iowa polls have been remarkably steady for months. Trump has averaged between 47 and 52 percent in the RealClearPolitics average since late May. After some initially strong support, DeSantis since late July has fluctuated between 17 and 20 percent, although recently his support has slowly declined to 16 percent. The only movement that’s mattered has been Haley’s steady rise to her current high point, which has her in a statistical tie with DeSantis for second place.

About the Author

Henry Olsen

Henry Olsen is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center and the author of The Working-Class Republican: Ronald Reagan and the Return of Blue-Collar Conservatism.