There’s a Lot More to Choosing a New Pope Than Hot-Button Cultural Divides

With the papal conclave convening on Wednesday, there’s a lot of buzz about who might be the next pope and what it means for the Catholic Church. The difficulty that arises is reminiscent of the old proverb about blind men groping different parts of an elephant. There are a great many different jobs that are included in being the pope, and commentary — whether by religion-impaired mass media or by Catholics deep in some particular faction or community — tends to oversimplify how much goes into picking a new pope.

There are two sayings worth remembering. One is that he who enters a conclave as pope leaves as cardinal — in other words, the publicly speculated favorites often don’t win the vote. A cynic would say that this reflects the human political dynamic; the faithful would note that the guidance of the Holy Spirit works in mysterious ways. The other saying is that a fat pope is followed by a skinny pope — in other words, the cardinals tend to react by choosing a contrast to the last pope. In that regard, because a pope’s job is so multifaceted, there is a pronounced historical tendency for the College of Cardinals to just pick a pope who is strongest where the previous pope was weakest, at the risk of choosing a successor to St. Peter who is weak in different areas — and so the cycle of reactions continues, just as it does for presidents and prime ministers.

About the Author

Dan McLaughlin

Dan McLaughlin is a senior writer at National Review Online and a fellow at National Review Institute.

Featured Tags

Manage following

Catholicism

Vatican

With the papal conclave convening on Wednesday, there’s a lot of buzz about who might be the next pope and what it means for the Catholic Church. The difficulty that arises is reminiscent of the old proverb about blind men groping different parts of an elephant. There are a great many different jobs that are included in being the pope, and commentary — whether by religion-impaired mass media or by Catholics deep in some particular faction or community — tends to oversimplify how much goes into picking a new pope.

There are two sayings worth remembering. One is that he who enters a conclave as pope leaves as cardinal — in other words, the publicly speculated favorites often don’t win the vote. A cynic would say that this reflects the human political dynamic; the faithful would note that the guidance of the Holy Spirit works in mysterious ways. The other saying is that a fat pope is followed by a skinny pope — in other words, the cardinals tend to react by choosing a contrast to the last pope. In that regard, because a pope’s job is so multifaceted, there is a pronounced historical tendency for the College of Cardinals to just pick a pope who is strongest where the previous pope was weakest, at the risk of choosing a successor to St. Peter who is weak in different areas — and so the cycle of reactions continues, just as it does for presidents and prime ministers.