2020 Democratic Primary Calendar Analysis

If you want to call the game, you have to know the playing field. The most important element of any election is the voters. The playing field of voters in a national presidential primary is unlike any other American election, because each state and territory votes not only separately, but also in sequence — not all at once, and not all under the same rules.

Last March, before Joe Biden had even officially entered the race, I looked at the Democratic primary calendar and what it could tell us. We’ve had a lot of water under the bridge since then — states moved their primaries or changed how they vote, delegate allocations were changed, major contenders left the race, and nearly a year of poll data gave us a clearer (but far from certain) sense of whom the leaders are. Let’s take a look at what the map is telling us as we enter the final weekend before the Iowa caucus.

About the Author

Dan McLaughlin

Dan McLaughlin is a senior writer at National Review Online and a fellow at National Review Institute.

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2020

If you want to call the game, you have to know the playing field. The most important element of any election is the voters. The playing field of voters in a national presidential primary is unlike any other American election, because each state and territory votes not only separately, but also in sequence — not all at once, and not all under the same rules.

Last March, before Joe Biden had even officially entered the race, I looked at the Democratic primary calendar and what it could tell us. We’ve had a lot of water under the bridge since then — states moved their primaries or changed how they vote, delegate allocations were changed, major contenders left the race, and nearly a year of poll data gave us a clearer (but far from certain) sense of whom the leaders are. Let’s take a look at what the map is telling us as we enter the final weekend before the Iowa caucus.