As Russia Falters, Ukraine Prepares to Seize the Initiative

At some point, critics of the West’s material support for Ukraine’s defense against a Russian onslaught on the grounds that “Ukraine is losing” are going to need a Russian victory to substantiate their claims. If they anticipated that at least one would follow Russia’s monthslong assault on Ukrainian lines this winter, Moscow’s inability to live up to their expectations has probably proven frustrating.

On Monday, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby revealed that the United States estimates that Russia has “suffered more than 100,000 casualties, including 20,000 killed in action” in and around the Donbas region in recent weeks. Throughout the winter and early spring, Russia sent wave after wave of regular soldiers and mercenaries at Ukrainian positions, but those positions held — often to the consternation of Western officials, who complained of Kyiv’s unwillingness to retrench.

At some point, critics of the West’s material support for Ukraine’s defense against a Russian onslaught on the grounds that “Ukraine is losing” are going to need a Russian victory to substantiate their claims. If they anticipated that at least one would follow Russia’s monthslong assault on Ukrainian lines this winter, Moscow’s inability to live up to their expectations has probably proven frustrating.

On Monday, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby revealed that the United States estimates that Russia has “suffered more than 100,000 casualties, including 20,000 killed in action” in and around the Donbas region in recent weeks. Throughout the winter and early spring, Russia sent wave after wave of regular soldiers and mercenaries at Ukrainian positions, but those positions held — often to the consternation of Western officials, who complained of Kyiv’s unwillingness to retrench.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.