The warning signs for Republicans ahead of November’s midterm elections are mounting.
Over the weekend, a Democratic candidate’s special-election victory in a Texas State Senate seat that Donald Trump won in 2024 by 17 points sent a shock wave through Republican politics. More alarmingly, the Democratic candidate’s overperformance fits within a trend that saw double-digit swings toward Democrats in special and off-year elections throughout 2025. As of today, the Democratic Party’s lead in the generic congressional ballot test is the largest it has ever been in the second Trump era.






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