If he wishes to make his second term a success, President-elect Donald Trump must learn a lesson from his much-disdained predecessor and assiduously ignore all soothsayers who bring auguries of unyielding triumph. Today, Trump and his allies are riding high. But it would not take much to bring their salad days to a close. In early 2021, Joe Biden felt ascendant, too. By the summer, he was hated.
Trump’s second election victory was, indeed, impressive. But, truth be told, it was mostly impressive relative to expectations rather than on its own terms. Trump won the popular vote by the 44th greatest margin since 1824. He swept the swing states, but in a manner that, had 240,000 votes gone the other way, would have led to a loss. And he lacked coattails in both the Senate and the House. Given that, between leaving office in 2020 and winning the Republican primary in 2024, Trump was impeached, indicted, convicted, berated, ostracized, kicked off the ballot, and much more besides, the mere fact that he will be returning to the White House is extraordinary in and of itself. But he should not get out over his skis. He won the election decisively, yes, but he did not blow off the doors. Those traps that ensnared President Biden from the first months of his tenure? They’re still there, and they’re still loaded.
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