Hartford, Conn. – I felt jealous as I watched the election returns from Joe Lieberman’s headquarters here last night. Back in 2004, I wanted Pat Toomey to beat Arlen Specter senseless in Pennsylvania’s Republican Senate primary. But it proved impossible to mount a conservative insurgency against a Republican who had been wrong about a lot of things during the big-government presidency of George W. Bush, but who had backed Bush’s response to the threat of Islamic terrorism. Conservatives, it seemed, couldn’t work up enough anger to unseat liberal Republicans who got the Most Important Issue right.

Yesterday, Connecticut liberals succeeded where conservatives failed — only in reverse. They had a liberal senator who agreed with them on almost everything but who, according to them, got the Most Important Issue wrong. Consequently, they defeated him in yesterday’s Democratic Senate primary.

Instead, Connecticut liberals gave the Democratic nomination to a candidate who champions a seriously outdated brand of liberalism — big, BIG government solutions to social problems, more trade barriers to reduce the flow of cheap imports into the United States, and most of all, a foreign policy based on the stated desire to “negotiate with our enemies” (who, at this moment in history, happen to be terrorists who want us all dead). Ned Lamont’s platform combines the domestic policy of Lyndon Johnson and the foreign policy of Jimmy Carter.

Lamont made the centerpiece of his campaign his desire, expressed fervently and often, to start withdrawing the U.S. military from Iraq immediately. By selling his candidacy as a vote against the increasingly unpopular war, Lamont was able to beat Lieberman 52-48. But the blow to Lieberman was not mortal. The three-term senator immediately announced his intentions to run in November as an Independent.

“For the sake of our state, our country and my party, I cannot, I will not let this result stand,” Lieberman told cheering supporters at the Goodwin Hotel here last night. Lieberman is currently a favorite to beat Lamont and weak Republican candidate Alan Schlesinger in a three-way race. But he could see that lead shrink as he comes up against some serious obstacles in the next 12 weeks:

  • Support in the polls: If Ned Lamont gets a huge bounce from his primary victory, Lieberman’s run as an independent could be over before it starts. Lieberman’s advisors told reporters last night a too-precipitous drop might convince the senator to drop out of the race.
  • Support from other Democrats: Ned Lamont’s supporters in the blogosphere are already calling for Senate Democrats to ostracize Joe Lieberman as a way to weaken him if he chooses to remain in the race. They want Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid to take away Lieberman’s committee assignments if he doesn’t drop out. They are pressuring all prominent Democrats to endorse Ned Lamont now that he is the party’s nominee. A lot of Democrats who supported Lieberman in the primary will now officially endorse Lamont. But will they go beyond nominally backing him? If Lieberman’s friends like Chris Dodd go beyond endorsing Lamont and actually start campaigning for him (or privately asking Lieberman to drop out), he might reconsider his independent bid.
  • Progress in Iraq: The war in Iraq will remain the key issue in this race. If U.S. and Iraqi security forces are able to reduce the amount of sectarian violence in Baghdad and bring the country back from the brink of civil war, Lieberman’s position on Iraq won’t be as easy for Lamont to exploit. If the country slides further into chaos, Lamont can continue to make the case that Lieberman has rubber-stamped a “stay-the-course” strategy that’s getting us nowhere.

In order to win in November, Lieberman has to contain Lamont’s momentum in the polls, convince his friends in the Democratic party not to actively campaign against him, and hope that Iraq becomes more stable in the next three months. With such a challenge ahead, one conversation I overheard last night at the Goodwin struck me as a pithy assessment of the difficulties Lieberman faces. With about 80 percent of the precincts reporting and Lieberman trailing by 4 points, one Lieberman supporter asked another if he was leaving. He replied, “No, I’m here ‘til the bitter end.”

To which the first Lieberman supporter responded: “Bitter end? This is the bitter beginning. Ready to do all this again?”

– Stephen Spruiell is NRO’s media blogger. He’s been reporting on the Connecticut primary for NRO.