Coronavirus Case Surge: What It Means

The recent day-over-day increases in reported COVID-19 cases have generated public reactions that range from COVID fatigue to cautiousness to outright panic. In many places, the number of new cases being reported each day even eclipses the numbers seen at the prior peak of the pandemic in the U.S. this spring. Nationally, on June 26th, there were 40,588 new cases per day reported, compared to a peak of 44,726 on April 26th. The increases are being driven by certain states and regions. Two states that exemplify this increase are Texas and Florida. In Texas, on June 26th, there were 5,799 new cases compared with a previous peak of 1,801 on May 16. In Florida, the reported number of new cases per day increased from 673 to 8,942 over the same time period.

However, rising case numbers only paint part of the picture. Case numbers alone do not provide sufficient information on whether there is a true accelerating spread of infection or just greater detection through increased testing. Case numbers alone cannot reliably inform policy-makers whether the new cases will have the same impact on the health-care system and COVID-related deaths as cases detected earlier in the pandemic in previous hotspots such as New York City and Boston.

JE

About the Author

Jonathan Ellen

Jonathan Ellen, M.D., is a pediatrician, epidemiologist, public health researcher and former hospital CEO.

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The recent day-over-day increases in reported COVID-19 cases have generated public reactions that range from COVID fatigue to cautiousness to outright panic. In many places, the number of new cases being reported each day even eclipses the numbers seen at the prior peak of the pandemic in the U.S. this spring. Nationally, on June 26th, there were 40,588 new cases per day reported, compared to a peak of 44,726 on April 26th. The increases are being driven by certain states and regions. Two states that exemplify this increase are Texas and Florida. In Texas, on June 26th, there were 5,799 new cases compared with a previous peak of 1,801 on May 16. In Florida, the reported number of new cases per day increased from 673 to 8,942 over the same time period.

However, rising case numbers only paint part of the picture. Case numbers alone do not provide sufficient information on whether there is a true accelerating spread of infection or just greater detection through increased testing. Case numbers alone cannot reliably inform policy-makers whether the new cases will have the same impact on the health-care system and COVID-related deaths as cases detected earlier in the pandemic in previous hotspots such as New York City and Boston.