American policy toward Taiwan is one of “strategic ambiguity.” If China attacks Taiwan, U.S. forces may fight or not fight. Chairman Xi’s bellicosity signals that he believes we wouldn’t fight. By seizing Taiwan, China would control $6 trillion in seaborne trade and cut us off from South Korea and Japan. Simply put, our own security depends upon a willingness to fight for Taiwan’s freedom.
To ensure that Xi believes that the U.S. would fight, three actions are necessary. First, make it clear that America would defeat a Chinese invasion. A few years ago, a senior Pentagon official claimed that China defeated us in a series of war games. The Wall Street Journal recently reported on a war game conducted by a think tank. After “horrific [U.S.] losses,” one of its participants concluded, “Nobody won, but nobody lost either.” That is scarcely reassuring. The chairman of our Joint Chiefs, General Mark Milley, has said, “We’re witnessing one of the largest shifts in global geostrategic power that the world has witnessed.” Such lugubrious sentiments, coupled with the Afghanistan debacle, are demoralizing. In 2018, 70 percent of Americans had a great deal of confidence in our military; that has dropped to 45 percent. Our senior leaders must belay pessimism.
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