Electoral College History: Decisive State Outcomes

The 2020 presidential election could be decided by one state, most likely Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. How often has that happened? Let’s take a walk through the history of presidential elections.

In 58 presidential elections since 1788, 19 — almost a third — have been close enough that the outcome would have been different if at least one key state had gone the other way. In nine of those 19, it was only one state that was big enough to make the difference. Some of those single states were very close, but others weren’t. For example, the only state in Donald Trump’s 2016 coalition big enough to decide the election for him by itself was Texas, decided by almost a nine-point margin. At the other end, five elections have been close enough that there were more than three states in the winner’s coalition that could have changed the outcome by going the other way.

About the Author

Dan McLaughlin

Dan McLaughlin is a senior writer at National Review Online and a fellow at National Review Institute.

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Electoral College

The 2020 presidential election could be decided by one state, most likely Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. How often has that happened? Let’s take a walk through the history of presidential elections.

In 58 presidential elections since 1788, 19 — almost a third — have been close enough that the outcome would have been different if at least one key state had gone the other way. In nine of those 19, it was only one state that was big enough to make the difference. Some of those single states were very close, but others weren’t. For example, the only state in Donald Trump’s 2016 coalition big enough to decide the election for him by itself was Texas, decided by almost a nine-point margin. At the other end, five elections have been close enough that there were more than three states in the winner’s coalition that could have changed the outcome by going the other way.