I know, I know, I know. Don’t shout at me. I don’t want it to be true, either. But, on balance, I think it is fair to say that Joe Biden is more likely to win the election next year than is a Republican challenger. Biden is unpopular, yes. But he’s not that unpopular. And, besides, it’s difficult to defeat incumbent presidents at the best of times. Are these the best of times? I think not. The Republican brand is still badly damaged by Donald Trump and the riots of January 6. Republican primary voters seem determined to continue to pick unpalatable candidates who drag their tickets down. The overturning of Roe v. Wade, while necessary, has presented conservatives with a new set of political challenges. And the chaos of Covid has disappeared. At this rate, inflation and gas prices will both be down by next year, and interest rates will soon follow. Providing that President Biden can avoid falling off a stage or collapsing during an interview, he’ll be in a good position to be reelected.
I can, of course, construct a scenario in which Biden loses in 2024. He already seems ancient and out of it, and, this time around, he will not be able to spend the entire election season hiding in his basement. It seems possible that there will be a recession next year, which, for a hostage-to-fortune candidate, could be uniquely damaging. And, on a whole host of important social issues, the Democrats really are crazy. But if Republicans think that even these serious liabilities will make next year’s campaign an easy one, they are deeply, deeply delusional. Since 1992, the GOP has won the popular vote just once. And, since 2016, they’ve put off millions of the suburban voters on which they have relied since 1968. Even absent that burden, it would have been responsible for Republicans to consider themselves the underdogs. With it, they should assume that they’re going to start the game ten points down.
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