At Ricochet, longtime political hand Mike Murphy estimates the likelihood of each candidate’s triumph. He thinks Michael Steele is a surefire loser and predicts a showdown between Reince Priebus and an anti-Priebus candidate from among the challengers (Saul Anuzis, Maria Cino, and Ann Wagner). “My sources say [Anuzis] is doing increasingly well with second and third ballot commitments,” Murphy writes. “My guess is that Saul will emerge as the leading opponent to Priebus after the first ballot.” Read more here.