There is a pattern in the interplay between Washington and Moscow when it comes to the war in Ukraine. Washington draws a firm-ish line in the sand, hoping to deter Moscow. Moscow notices the hedging, and presses forward. Washington, suddenly now worried about what new precedents are being set by Russian action, scrambles to invest more in the conflict, and then draws another firm-ish line, effectively daring Moscow to cross it.
It’s a game of escalation by miscalculation. So, for instance, before the present phase of the conflict began, the White House indicated that a full Russian invasion of Ukraine would be met with stiff sanctions, but a “minor incursion” might be met with something less. Meanwhile, American intelligence agencies let it be known that the U.S. believed Kyiv’s government would not last long in the event of an invasion. Vladimir Putin responded that he expected and was prepared for the sanctions. Russia invaded, partly confident that its own assessment of Kyiv’s strength was reflected by NATO.
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