China’s Collapse: Is World Prepared?

The most salutary and enduring effect Donald Trump’s presidency had on Washington was that it put the entire town into a new attitude of realism about China. While Trump conducted a phony trade war with China — one that he concluded by begging Chairman Xi to buy more soybeans from swing states — the rest of D.C. started noticing how belligerent China was on the world stage, with its “wolf warrior” diplomacy. Legislators started to put the screws to China and its multinational corporate partners for their participation in the oppression of Uyghurs in the Xinjiang region. The Biden administration kept many of the remaining anti-Chinese tariffs and then set about trying to cut China off from even participating in the future development of advanced microprocessors. Elbridge Colby became a fixture across much of Washington for his book, The Strategy of Denial, which outlined the seriousness of China’s military buildup and the limited resources the U.S. had to meet a potential threat in the Pacific theater. His book was respected if not exactly heeded, as the U.S. then recommitted itself to being the lead actor in European security.

And we should be preparing for a conflict with China. Chairman Xi has made it quite clear that he intends to prepare the People’s Liberation Army to take Taiwan within the coming decade and has extended his rule in China with rhetoric matching his political destiny to this irredentist goal. Analysts disagree about the consequences, but such a move would at least be an occasion for a half-dozen Pacific nations to reassess their economic and security ties to the United States. That would jeopardize the U.S. standing as the global hegemon, possibly weaken the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and have a dramatic effect on living standards in the U.S. Preparing for China’s rise is just the basic due diligence of a power like the United States.

About the Author

Michael Brendan Dougherty

Michael Brendan Dougherty is a senior writer at National Review Online.

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The most salutary and enduring effect Donald Trump’s presidency had on Washington was that it put the entire town into a new attitude of realism about China. While Trump conducted a phony trade war with China — one that he concluded by begging Chairman Xi to buy more soybeans from swing states — the rest of D.C. started noticing how belligerent China was on the world stage, with its “wolf warrior” diplomacy. Legislators started to put the screws to China and its multinational corporate partners for their participation in the oppression of Uyghurs in the Xinjiang region. The Biden administration kept many of the remaining anti-Chinese tariffs and then set about trying to cut China off from even participating in the future development of advanced microprocessors. Elbridge Colby became a fixture across much of Washington for his book, The Strategy of Denial, which outlined the seriousness of China’s military buildup and the limited resources the U.S. had to meet a potential threat in the Pacific theater. His book was respected if not exactly heeded, as the U.S. then recommitted itself to being the lead actor in European security.

And we should be preparing for a conflict with China. Chairman Xi has made it quite clear that he intends to prepare the People’s Liberation Army to take Taiwan within the coming decade and has extended his rule in China with rhetoric matching his political destiny to this irredentist goal. Analysts disagree about the consequences, but such a move would at least be an occasion for a half-dozen Pacific nations to reassess their economic and security ties to the United States. That would jeopardize the U.S. standing as the global hegemon, possibly weaken the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and have a dramatic effect on living standards in the U.S. Preparing for China’s rise is just the basic due diligence of a power like the United States.