‘If I had to vote in South Carolina, in order to keep this thing going, I’d vote for Newt.”

With those 19 words, relayed on Tuesday night to Sean Hannity of Fox News, Sarah Palin signaled her support for Newt Gingrich. It was a tacit endorsement, a thumbs-up.

At least that’s one interpretation.

Supporters of the former Alaska governor, however, are quick to note that Palin’s remark is hardly reason for Gingrich to cheer, thanks to Palin’s propensity for the cryptic.

“I don’t take that as an out-and-out endorsement,” says Peter Singleton, a grassroots organizer. “All along, she’s been complimentary of all of the candidates, including Gingrich. What she’s saying is, ‘Don’t overlook this guy, and don’t let Romney steamroll in South Carolina.’”

Singleton, a prominent coordinator of pro-Palin forces in Iowa, believes Palin’s goal with this statement, and others like it, is to “buck up” contenders who are struggling to compete with Romney, the frontrunner in national polls. “More than anything, she wants a vigorous debate,” he says.

Jedediah Bila, a conservative commentator and longtime Palin observer, agrees. “I don’t think [Palin] will necessarily come out and give a full-fledged endorsement,” she says. “That would be hard to do, since I’m not sure any of these candidates fit the bill; I don’t think her ideal candidate is on the stage. She’s waiting to see who emerges, to see who is best-suited to beat Obama.”

Nevertheless, sources close to the Gingrich campaign spot a pattern. “We’re not expecting anything,” says one Gingrich surrogate. “And I don’t think the campaign is doing much behind the scenes to make it happen, either, since they don’t want to hurt the chance of a surprise. But there is a chance that [Palin endorses Gingrich], that she settles on him as the Romney alternative.”

Gingrich was encouraged earlier this month when Todd, Palin’s husband, endorsed the former speaker before the New Hampshire primary. In an interview with Greta Van Susteren of Fox News, Todd praised Gingrich’s fiery debate performances. “I just appreciate how he got his poll numbers back up the old-fashioned way,” he said. “I want to let him know at least one Palin is behind him.”

“I’m just thrilled with it,” Gingrich told me in Nashua after he heard the news. But he kept mum when pressed about the support of the higher-profile spouse.

Palin insiders acknowledge that Todd Palin’s rationale for endorsing Gingrich echoes Palin’s kind words and could hint at what’s to come. Beyond that, confidants and former Palin aides are reluctant to say more, stressing Palin’s “lack of a timeline or pressure,” as one source puts it.

Palin, for her part, chuckled when asked about Todd’s nod. “First dude went rogue,” she told Fox Business Network. “I respect him for doing that. Todd is all about hard hats and steel-toed boots and getting people to work,” and to him, Gingrich has “connectivity to the working class.”

Stephen Bannon, the director of The Undefeated, a documentary about Palin’s gubernatorial record and a friend to many within Palin’s inner circle, cautions that Palin’s latest television remarks, though supportive of Gingrich, should not be seen as the final word. He says many within her camp see her as an outside assessor, not a kingmaker.

“The commentariat is focused on what she told Hannity this week, but she really changed the race last week when she went on Hannity and asked Romney for transparency, to share the facts about his job-creation record at Bain, and to fully release his tax returns,” Bannon says. “People have missed the dynamic here. She’s been very consistent in asking the candidates to talk about the facts, and with Romney, she’s doing that. It’s not about endorsing; it’s about vetting.”

Palin reiterated that sentiment in her Hannity interview on Tuesday. “We know the mistake that was made in our country four years ago, having a candidate that was not vetted to the degree that he should have been, so that we knew what his associations and his pals represented,” she said. This cycle, “I want to see that taking place. America is on the precipice. It’s that important.”

Palin’s maneuvers, of course, also boost her standing with tea-party activists, many of whom are suspicious of Romney and appreciative of Gingrich’s gusto. After a tumultuous run as the Republican vice-presidential nominee, she appears happy to break from the establishment GOP, including Sen. John McCain of Arizona, her former running mate, who endorsed Romney.

Indeed, if Palin hints at an endorsement, but does not give her full approval, it would be a “perfect play,” as one of her backers explains it; it would enable her to retain her outside-the-Beltway credibility while influencing the primary in subtle ways.

In early February, for instance, Palin will deliver the keynote address at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, a major right-wing gathering. For the moment, her supporters don’t expect her to arrive as an official Gingrich booster; they expect her to speak up for broad causes and perhaps inject a few primary observations.

“She’s paying attention and respecting the process,” says Thomas Schmitz, a Palin organizer and chairman of American Grizzlies United. On Palin-related Internet forums, the reaction to her latest comments is “mixed,” he says. “It’s not one cohesive [response]; people are talking about it; it’s definitely sparked up interest. The race had hit a wall, in many ways, and this has people jumping back in.”

Palin sources point out that her comments, and the way she’s dancing around an explicit endorsement, are probably strategic. It keeps her part of the conversation without committing her to a candidate who could stumble. Should Gingrich continue to rise, she’ll receive part of the credit. If not, as Palin supporters see it, she did her best to encourage him and the other GOP candidates. And she has, at various points, extolled Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, and Ron Paul.

Another theory, floated in background conversations, is modesty. Palin’s reluctance to do more than boost a surging Romney challenger could be rooted in the polls, supporters say. Endorsements from high-profile politicos may be major news stories, but according to a Washington Post–Pew Research Center poll released this month, they frequently mean little to voters. Palin’s endorsement would grab headlines, but it would not be a factor to 61 percent of conservatives, according to the Post poll. That figure is similar to the scores of similar GOP politicians, the Post reports, but notable nonetheless.

“I think she’s playing the long game,” Singleton says. “She’s not looking at the endorsement process as a time to get something or to make a deal. There’s no jockeying. Take what she says at face value. She’s raising issues, complimenting many, and keeping her eye on Obama.”

Gingrich’s advisers tell me that they respect her process. “We’re in no mood to rush anything,” one surrogate says. But they are eager to let South Carolina Republicans know that Palin may, just may, be leaning in their direction. After she went on Hannity, Team Gingrich clipped the video, posted it on their YouTube channel, and promptly thanked Palin via Twitter.

Speaking with CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Wednesday, Gingrich was all smiles. “I hope everybody who likes her decides she’s right. And I hope they vote for me,” he said. He added that he would “ask her to consider taking a major role in the next administration if I’m president,” a comment that stirred buzz in the political press.

Call it a thumbs-up, call it kudos. The debate within Palin World is fierce. But to Gingrich’s campaign, it was something. At the eleventh hour of a brutal primary, it’s hope.

— Robert Costa is a political reporter for National Review.