Be careful what you wish for.

That’s what key Arnold Schwarzenegger backers may now be thinking. Or at least, be careful when you wish it to happen.

Schwarzenegger’s people wanted Bill Simon out. Consider the Orange County Lincoln Club, which last year invested $200,000 in Simon’s campaign against Gray Davis. The Lincoln Club knows a winner.

On Friday, the group resolved to support Arnold. It asked Simon to withdraw, which he did on Saturday. Simon’s exit was well choreographed; he ended with his head high.

But the weekend spin was not that Simon’s exit helps Arnold, but Tom McClintock.

Presumably, Simon’s voters are (a) conservatives who (b) would tilt toward McClintock. If not, McClintock has a problem.

Judging by McClintock’s lean campaign, you can believe he would cut the state budget. But how will he become governor, with his skeleton campaign? He remains omnipresent on talk shows. He accepts all television interviews. In contrast, Arnold does large groups, no 1-on-1s. Still, McClintock doesn’t yet get (enough) respect. A good McClintock ad campaign would change all that.

Will Simon now endorse Schwarzenegger, who he has called a liberal? Many of Simon’s thoughtful policy proposals were borrowed from the likes of the Reason Foundation. Sacramento Bee columnist Daniel Weintraub predicts Arnold’s campaign will adopt them. Weintraub also speculates Governor Schwarzenegger will name Simon to a post.

There is also the small matter of the actual election. The latest Los Angeles Times poll raises eyebrows. It shows Davis inexplicably better off. If (repeat if) you believe Davis is only 5 points behind, he will beat the recall. The same poll shows Bustamante a clear frontrunner; but the reason is not other Republicans cutting into Schwarzenegger. It’s Arnold. His negative is 44 percent.

Will Simon endorse the politically incorrect McClintock? His candidacy helped erode Simon’s base. But some Simon volunteers are moving toward McClintock. In the end, though, do they even matter if turnout is heavy, marginalizing the grassroots?

Finally, will Simon remain neutral, at least for now? He already has absolved himself of being a spoiler. Must he do more?

The other Republican is “nonpartisan” Peter Ueberroth. He has a good resume. He’s rich and might pay for an ad campaign. But his opening disappointed. He lacked energy, seemed nearly frail. Still, Republican VIPs are maneuvering to get Ueberroth out. But Ueberroth’s people say their guy will stay until the end; they insist he will emerge the winner. Besides, the Ueberroth pitch will go beyond Republicans. Thus, it’s unclear that his departure would help Schwarzenegger.

In the murky waters of turnout, what will happen to Arnold’s voters? He needs a high turnout, more in person than by mail. The Times poll claims Republicans are Arnold 39 percent, McClintock 21 percent, Simon 12 percent. In the unreal world of hypothesis, that’s 39 percent to 33 percent (McClintock+Simon). But it’s hard to imagine all Simon voters going to McClintock. Still, among Republicans voting by mail, McClintock could soon be ahead.

That makes it pretty tough for Schwarzenegger’s campaign to conduct an absentee-ballot campaign. He doesn’t have a lock on Republican votes. On the other side, the Democrats are circling the wagons. And, as for the broader recall campaign, what hath Arnold done? The coverage is so massive, it risks cranking out Democrats. And are they so paranoid that they see even Arnold as part of a right-wing plot?

There’s nothing more unfair in life (or at least politics) than being part of a right-wing plot when you’re not even a right-winger.

— Arnold Steinberg is a California political strategist and the author of graduate textbooks on politics and media.