Democrats learned quickly that the legal pursuit against Donald Trump had a political effect. In the beginning of 2021, Florida governor Ron DeSantis was tied or ahead of Donald Trump. When the first criminal charges came down, Trump consolidated the support of the Republican base, while it seemed to hurt him with suburban moderates and in the betting markets.
Their theory has some sense to it. There likely is some cohort of dutiful voters who are not paying very close attention to the details of these trials, but they nonetheless have faith in the American justice system. Donald Trump has always seemed like a man who at least plays fast and loose with the rules. And when they hear that a vote for him risks putting a “convicted felon” into the White House, they may think better of it and choose the man with dementia instead.
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