The Supreme Court this morning dealt a blow to House Republicans by unanimously turning away Alabama’s emergency appeals in its ongoing congressional-redistricting fight. That fight isn’t over as it goes now to a special master who’ll draw new lines, but it means that the Alabama legislature’s replacement map (which would likely have been 6–1 Republican, like the existing map) goes the same way as its current map, which was effectively thrown out in June under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act by the Court’s decision in Allen v. Milligan.
This increases the likelihood that the special master will draw a map with a second majority-black district. It’s not impossible that Republicans can sometimes win such a district, because it is hard to draw plausible maps with two safe Democratic districts in a state with Alabama’s electorate and geography. But from a strictly partisan perspective, it would be a distinct change from the current map, where each of the six Republican seats is rated at least R+16 in the Cook Partisan Voting Index.






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