It’s early to say what the 2026 Senate elections will look like. And yet, it is important. With 53 Senate seats, Republicans only need to avoid a net loss of three or more seats in order to hang on to control of the chamber through the remainder of Donald Trump’s term. Realistically, they need a one or two-vote margin of error in order to be able to reliably confirm judges and pass other priorities that require 51 votes (counting Vice President JD Vance’s tiebreaking vote). Many decisions that will be made in the next two years — especially regarding the potential retirement of Supreme Court justices — are likely to be shaped by expectations about whether Trump has two or four years with a Republican Senate. So, we must start thinking about it today.
There are three key elements to a Senate election cycle: the political environment, the map, and the candidates.
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