House speaker Nancy Pelosi made the right decision by going to Taiwan, where she has just landed. She has been consistent for decades about her support for democratic principles and human rights in China, and in her support for Taiwan and its status. Beijing will continue to bluster, threaten military action, and find other ways to show its pique. But we should remember that, last fall, China conducted more than 100 military incursions into Taiwanese airspace as it tested the new Biden administration to see how it might differ from its predecessor. The speaker’s trip reflects her recognition that the U.S.–PRC relationship is based on testing and counter-testing. Her instincts on this are correct.
Her visit is best seen in that context. This testing dynamic goes back a long time. Occasionally, it can create opportunities to advance the relationship in a constructive way. Recall the early days of the Bush administration, when the Chinese PLA Air Force forced down a U.S. EP-3 aircraft mere weeks after Bush took office. The government in Beijing was clearly testing the new administration. President Bush responded by noting that the U.S. would do whatever it took to defend Taiwan, and by suspending military-to-military exchanges — high-level meetings of personnel — between the U.S. and China.
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