The Eternally Unrealized MAGA Crack-Up

It was only a few weeks ago that the MAGA coalition shattered into smithereens because of Donald Trump’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear program. You remember that, right? Shortly after the president joined Israel’s ongoing attacks on Iranian military targets, the load-bearing pillars of Trump’s electoral base crumbled — perhaps irreparably — internecine political combat spilled into the public square, and Trump’s hold over the GOP began to slip.

Doesn’t ring a bell? Well, it shouldn’t. In the wake of Operation Midnight Hammer, the notion that Trump’s support within the Republican Party is contingent on the support of a loud but narrow sliver of the GOP’s coalition — one that is overrepresented in online forums — was wished into existence. The whole thing was a mirage. Today, only about one in ten Republicans tells pollsters that he disapproves of the job Trump is doing in office.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.

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It was only a few weeks ago that the MAGA coalition shattered into smithereens because of Donald Trump’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear program. You remember that, right? Shortly after the president joined Israel’s ongoing attacks on Iranian military targets, the load-bearing pillars of Trump’s electoral base crumbled — perhaps irreparably — internecine political combat spilled into the public square, and Trump’s hold over the GOP began to slip.

Doesn’t ring a bell? Well, it shouldn’t. In the wake of Operation Midnight Hammer, the notion that Trump’s support within the Republican Party is contingent on the support of a loud but narrow sliver of the GOP’s coalition — one that is overrepresented in online forums — was wished into existence. The whole thing was a mirage. Today, only about one in ten Republicans tells pollsters that he disapproves of the job Trump is doing in office.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.