Much as we might like to believe that every American election represents a lofty and earnest battle of ideas, during which the candidates and their offerings are considered anew by a sober, engaged, and consistent electorate, the harsh truth of the matter is that the pendulum of time plays as considerable a role as anything more didactic. Like the weather in New England, if you don’t like the party running the White House or Congress, your best bet is to wait a while. Perhaps that “while” will be four years. Perhaps it’ll be eight. On occasion, it may even be twelve. But, in due course, the reins will be handed over to the other team. American voters are an impatient bunch, and they grow tired of seeing the same cast of characters year in, year out. Events matter, no doubt. Often, the clock matters more.
At present, this pendulum ought to be sitting firmly within the GOP’s hands. The Democratic Party — which won the presidency in 2008, 2012, and 2020 — is weak, crazy, and directionless. Their president is unusually unpopular, their economy is broadly loathed, the border is out of control, and the world seems more dangerous than it has for years. Meanwhile, thanks to an excellent run of elections between 2010 and 2014, the Republicans have a large number of appealing candidates who are able to make the case for the change. For the GOP, these ought to be salad days; instead, it’s scraping by. It will come to regret it.
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