My impression is that there is not a single explanation for the House Republican impasse over the speaker’s job. Although the 20 GOP representatives who have now voted against Kevin McCarthy six times are being described in the public commentary as if they were a single bloc, they are not. There is a small Never McCarthy subset, and a bigger group that would vote for McCarthy if they get concessions, of the sort described in John McCormack’s NR report. After two days of this frustrating process, I think the two groups need to be analyzed separately.
Let’s start with the Never McCarthy faction. This group may well defy my premise that there is not a single explanation for the impasse. After all, in the end, this is about simple math. There are 222 Republicans in the new Congress. For Kevin McCarthy to get to 218, he cannot afford to lose more than four. It is certainly possible that out of the 20 dissenters, there are at least five Never McCarthys. If that is the case, McCarthy won’t get to 218, period.
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