On Tuesday, the Detroit News published a poll that indicated grim prospects for Republicans in Michigan. Incumbent governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat who rose to prominence in 2020 for quarreling with President Donald Trump over her draconian Covid-19 policies, destroyed every one of her hypothetical Republican challengers. Not only did the poll show that Whitmer’s approval rating has increased from 48 percent to 55 percent since September, but it also put the best-performing Republican, Ryan Kelley, who was arrested in June for allegedly entering the Capitol during the January 6 riot, behind Whitmer by nine points, 50–41 percent. Although many insiders and consultants sounded the alarm in response to the poll, it is far from a death knell for Republicans in the state or a sign of the red wave receding. Rather, it is more a testament to the sheer lack of name recognition in the Michigan Republican primary.
This is a unique and local set of circumstances that dims, for now, the GOP’s prospects in the state. The simple fact is that barely anyone knows who the Republican candidates are, and that’s been true for the entire cycle. The best-known candidate, former Detroit police chief James Craig, had a real chance of beating Whitmer when the season began in fall 2021. He led her by six points in a September poll, though his advantage dissipated months later, and he was leading the other Republican candidates in primary polls until he was disqualified in late May for turning in too many fake signatures on his ballot petitions.
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