The transgender and gay-rights movements are often lumped together — including in the very acronym LGBT — so many observers assume that the transgender cause will follow a similar trajectory. But there’s a reason why transgender activists won’t experience the level of rapid success that gay-rights activists enjoyed over the past several decades.
Broad acceptance of gay marriage represented one of the most extraordinary shifts of public opinion on a major social issue in American history. In 1996, the Defense of Marriage Act sailed through both chambers of Congress and was signed into law by Bill Clinton. In 2004, the year eleven states passed bans on gay marriage in ballot measures, Americans opposed gay marriage by a two-to-one margin (or 60 percent to 31 percent), according to the Pew Research Center. In 2008, the same California electorate that voted for Barack Obama by 24 points also passed a measure banning gay marriage.
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